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    How Scotiabank’s Upgrade and Input Cost Shifts At Mosaic (MOS) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·02/04/2026 22:22:19
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    • In recent days, Scotiabank upgraded The Mosaic Company to “Outperform,” citing expectations that phosphate stripping margins are bottoming and that lower ammonia and sulphur costs could support its fertilizer business.
    • This shift in analyst sentiment highlights how changing input cost trends and margin expectations can reshape perceptions of Mosaic’s position across the phosphate and potash markets.
    • With this upgrade and anticipated phosphate margin recovery in focus, we’ll explore how these factors may influence Mosaic’s broader investment narrative.

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    What Is Mosaic's Investment Narrative?

    For Mosaic, the big picture an investor has to buy into is that a cyclical fertilizer producer can still create value even when the outlook for commodity prices and farm economics is mixed. Recent results show improved profitability and higher margins versus last year, but with earnings expected to soften and revenue growth running slower than the broader market, the story leans heavily on capital discipline, cost control and prudent use of buybacks and dividends. Scotiabank’s upgrade, tied to expectations of stabilizing phosphate margins and easing input costs, feeds directly into one of the key short term catalysts: any confirmation of margin resilience in upcoming quarters could reshape sentiment after a weak period for shipments. At the same time, concerns around potash oversupply, softer earnings forecasts and a dividend that is not well covered by free cash flow remain central risks that this upgrade does not erase.

    However, one emerging risk around potash markets could matter more than some investors expect. Mosaic's share price has been on the slide but might be up to 23% below fair value. Find out if it's a bargain.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    MOS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    MOS 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    Five Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span roughly US$23 to US$37 per share, underlining how far apart individual views can be. Set against concerns about earnings softness and potash oversupply, this spread shows why it can help to weigh several perspectives before deciding how Mosaic’s risk and reward profile fits into your own portfolio.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Mosaic - why the stock might be worth 19% less than the current price!

    Build Your Own Mosaic Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.