Assessing Bristow Group (VTOL) Valuation After Major Debt Refinancing And Balance Sheet Reshaping

Bristow Group (VTOL) has just reshaped its balance sheet by closing a US$500 million offering of 6.750% senior secured notes due 2033 and extending its asset based revolving credit facility to 2031.

See our latest analysis for Bristow Group.

These financing moves come after a strong run in the shares, with a 30 day share price return of 21.45% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 29.09%. This points to momentum that has been supported by Bristow’s recent Electra EL9 aircraft agreement and ongoing contract activity.

If this kind of balance sheet reshaping catches your eye, it could be a useful moment to look beyond one name and see what else is on the move across aerospace and defense stocks.

With US$1,466.8m in revenue, US$142.4m in net income and a recent price of US$45.35 versus a US$52.50 analyst target, is Bristow still trading at a discount, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 13.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative sees Bristow Group’s fair value at $52.50 versus the current $45.35, and ties that gap directly to long term contract wins and new aircraft plans.

The ramp up and full transition of new long term government search and rescue contracts in Ireland and the UK are expected to contribute materially to earnings from 2026 onward, ensuring high revenue visibility and stable, recurring cash flows over the next decade.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sits behind that earnings step up and the $52.50 fair value mark. The narrative leans heavily on revenue growth, margins, and a future earnings multiple that all have to line up. This analysis looks at how those moving parts fit together.

Result: Fair Value of $52.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the story can change quickly if supply chain delays or higher operating costs pressure margins, or if offshore energy activity softens more than analysts currently expect.

Find out about the key risks to this Bristow Group narrative.

Another Angle: What The SWS DCF Model Says

There is a twist when you look at Bristow Group through our DCF model. At a recent share price of $45.35, the SWS DCF model arrives at a future cash flow value of $6.97, which screens as overvalued rather than undervalued. That is a wide gap for any investor to weigh up, so which story do you think deserves more weight right now?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Bristow Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 867 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Bristow Group Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to rely on your own work, you can test your assumptions and build a fresh view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bristow Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you stop at Bristow, you miss a wider set of opportunities. Take a few minutes to scan other ideas so you are not leaving options on the table.

• Spot potential value by checking out these 867 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where pricing and cash flow expectations are already lined up for you.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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