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    Does Q4 Beat And 2026 Outlook Change The Bull Case For Waste Management (WM)?

    Simply Wall St·02/04/2026 07:27:26
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    • Waste Management, Inc. reported past fourth-quarter 2025 results with sales rising to US$6,313 million and net income to US$742 million, alongside full-year 2025 sales of US$25.20 billion and essentially flat earnings per share versus the prior year.
    • The company also issued 2026 revenue guidance of US$26.43 billion–US$26.63 billion, giving investors a clearer view of its expected growth path and operating scale.
    • Next, we will examine how Waste Management’s higher fourth-quarter earnings and new 2026 revenue guidance shape the company’s investment narrative.

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    What Is Waste Management's Investment Narrative?

    For someone considering Waste Management, the core belief is that a large, established waste and recycling operator can keep translating its entrenched local positions into steady cash generation, even when earnings flatten out, as they did in 2025. The latest quarter helps that case: higher fourth quarter sales and a rise in net income suggest that cost control and pricing are still working, and the new 2026 revenue guidance of about US$26.43 billion to US$26.63 billion adds a degree of visibility that many investors like in a higher-priced stock. In the near term, the main catalysts remain execution on that revenue outlook and disciplined capital returns after the 2026 dividend uplift and new US$3.00 billion buyback. The biggest risks are that high debt and softer profit margins limit flexibility if operating conditions tighten.

    However, one key financial risk could matter more than the recent earnings beat suggests.
    Despite retreating, Waste Management's shares might still be trading 22% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    WM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    WM 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    Investors in the Simply Wall St Community see fair value anywhere between US$200 and about US$288 across 12 different estimates, underscoring just how far opinions can stretch. Set against that spread, the company’s high debt load and recent margin pressure may matter more to some investors than the latest revenue guidance, which could influence how confidently they think Waste Management can sustain its current scale.

    Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Waste Management - why the stock might be worth as much as 28% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Waste Management Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.