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To own AXT here, you need to believe its position as an Indium Phosphide wafer supplier into AI-driven data centers can eventually support a move from persistent losses to sustainable profitability, despite an already stretched valuation and very large recent share price gains. In the near term, the big swing factors are February’s Q4 2025 results, any updates on AI optics demand, and how the company plans to deploy the roughly US$87,000,000 raised in the December follow-on offering, especially after a year of dilution and insider selling. The board’s decision to classify Leonard LeBlanc as independent and make him Audit Committee Chair should help on governance optics, but it is unlikely to change those operational and valuation catalysts in a material way on its own.
However, one governance upgrade does not remove the concentration, geopolitical and execution risks investors should be aware of. Our valuation report here indicates AXT may be overvalued.Explore 3 other fair value estimates on AXT - why the stock might be worth as much as $9.50!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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