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    A Look At Meritage Homes (MTH) Valuation After Soft Q4 Results And Flat 2026 Revenue Guidance

    Simply Wall St·02/02/2026 06:18:17
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    Meritage Homes (MTH) is back in focus after Q4 2025 results showed weaker than expected revenue and sales, while management pointed to affordability pressures, softer buyer confidence, and margin pressure, alongside strong backlog conversion and active buybacks.

    See our latest analysis for Meritage Homes.

    Those Q4 numbers and softer 2026 revenue guidance have coincided with a 7 day share price return of 3.05% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return of 6.46% decline, even though the 5 year total shareholder return of 62.09% shows longer term holders have still seen meaningful gains.

    If earnings volatility has you looking beyond homebuilders, this could be a useful moment to scan fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other ideas where management has more capital at stake.

    With earnings under pressure, shares trading around a 20% discount to analyst targets, and an internal valuation gap, the real question is whether Meritage is quietly cheap today or if the market already reflects its future growth potential.

    Most Popular Narrative: 16.4% Undervalued

    Against a last close of $69.51, the most followed narrative sees Meritage Homes’ fair value at $83.13, framing the current discount through a detailed long term earnings and margin view.

    Meritage's significant and accelerating growth in community count, including double-digit expansion for both 2025 and 2026, directly addresses the persistent undersupply of housing in the U.S., positioning the company to capture increased new-home demand and drive future revenue and earnings growth as macro headwinds abate.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what sits behind that $83.13 fair value tag? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth, slimmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple to bridge the gap. The numbers behind those assumptions may surprise you.

    Result: Fair Value of $83.13 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, you still need to weigh the risk that persistent affordability pressure on entry level buyers and thinner margins could stall the upside that this narrative is banking on.

    Find out about the key risks to this Meritage Homes narrative.

    Build Your Own Meritage Homes Narrative

    If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Meritage view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Meritage Homes research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Meritage is on your radar, do not stop there. This can be a useful time to widen your watchlist and identify other opportunities that fit your style.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.