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    Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Valuation Check As 2025 Profit Guidance Signals Sharp Earnings Drop

    Simply Wall St·02/01/2026 21:24:50
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    Why Canadian Solar’s 2025 Profit Guidance Matters

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ) expects 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders between RMB 900 million and RMB 1,100 million, a 60% to 51% year on year decline compared with 2024, which puts profitability in sharper focus for investors.

    See our latest analysis for Canadian Solar.

    The profit warning has arrived alongside a sharp reset in sentiment, with Canadian Solar’s 1 day share price return of 3.26% decline and 30 day share price return of 24.73% decline contrasting with a very large 1 year total shareholder return of 85.5%. This suggests recent momentum is fading after a strong prior run.

    If guidance cuts have you rethinking where growth might come from next, it could be worth scanning high growth tech and AI stocks as another pocket of market interest.

    With a 1 year total shareholder return of 85.5% sitting beside guidance for a 51% to 60% profit drop in 2025, you have to ask: is Canadian Solar now undervalued or already pricing in whatever growth comes next?

    Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

    Canadian Solar’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $23.33 per share versus the last close of $19.13, putting the spotlight on whether the current reset has gone too far.

    The company's forward integration into battery storage, with plans to expand BESS manufacturing capacity from 10 GWh to 24 GWh by 2026 and battery cell capacity from 3 GWh to 9 GWh, positions Canadian Solar to capture higher-margin business and increase average order value, positively impacting future net margins and earnings.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what kind of revenue path, profit margin lift, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value number, and how storage really changes the story? The full narrative lays out the exact assumptions, year by year, so you can judge for yourself whether $23.33 stacks up against your own expectations.

    Result: Fair Value of $23.33 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, that fair value story can quickly look different if policy shifts hit U.S. tax credits or if new tariffs and trade actions squeeze margins and project returns.

    Find out about the key risks to this Canadian Solar narrative.

    Build Your Own Canadian Solar Narrative

    If you are not convinced by this view or prefer to lean on your own work, you can pull the numbers, test your assumptions, and build a tailored thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Canadian Solar research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If you are rethinking where your next opportunity might come from, do not stop at one stock. Cast the net wider now so you are not playing catch up later.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.