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    A Look At FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) Valuation After Q4 Earnings Beat And 2026 Outlook Update

    Simply Wall St·02/01/2026 14:22:28
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    FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) is back in focus after fourth quarter results topped analyst expectations, along with updated 2026 guidance and ongoing merger integration work that is shaping how investors assess the stock.

    See our latest analysis for FirstSun Capital Bancorp.

    The recent Q4 earnings beat and progress on the First Foundation merger have come alongside a 90 day share price return of 18.03% and a 30 day share price return of 4.42%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of a 6.45% decline shows longer term gains have been more muted.

    If these bank sector moves have your attention, it could be a good time to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With the shares up strongly over the last quarter, trading at $39.48 with an implied discount to analyst targets and a value score of 4, the key question now is whether FSUN still offers an attractive entry point or if the current price already reflects its future prospects.

    Most Popular Narrative: 14.2% Undervalued

    With FirstSun Capital Bancorp last closing at $39.48 versus a narrative fair value of $46.00, the current setup hinges on how those long range earnings projections play out.

    Strong capital and liquidity ratios combined with an opportunistic approach toward organic growth and selective M&A provide FirstSun with flexibility to pursue expansion and deepen market presence, setting the stage for scalable revenue growth and long-term earnings accretion.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what is baked into that $46.00 figure? Revenue expansion, margin assumptions and a reset earnings path all feed into a tighter valuation story.

    Result: Fair Value of $46 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this hinges on deposit stability and credit costs, with episodic inflows and net charge offs of US$5,024,000 in Q4; both are capable of challenging that upside story.

    Find out about the key risks to this FirstSun Capital Bancorp narrative.

    Another Angle On Valuation

    While the narrative fair value sits at $46.00, our DCF model points to a future cash flow value of $84.24 with FSUN at $39.48 today. This suggests a very different message on potential upside. The big question is which set of assumptions you find more realistic.

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    FSUN Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
    FSUN Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

    Build Your Own FirstSun Capital Bancorp Narrative

    If you see the story differently or want to weigh the numbers yourself, you can pull the same data and shape your own view in a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

    A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding FirstSun Capital Bancorp.

    Ready for more investment ideas?

    If FSUN has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here, use the Simply Wall Street Screener to spot other opportunities that might fit your goals.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.