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    Assessing HCI Group (HCI) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

    Simply Wall St·01/31/2026 19:26:17
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    HCI Group (HCI) has drawn investor attention after recent share price volatility, with the stock showing a 17% decline over the past month and a 22% decline over the past three months.

    See our latest analysis for HCI Group.

    Even after the recent 17% one month and 22% three month share price declines, HCI Group’s latest share price of $158.67 sits against a one year total shareholder return of 31.54% and a very large 3 year total shareholder return of more than 7x. This suggests recent momentum has faded while longer term holders have still seen strong gains.

    If HCI’s pullback has you thinking about where else capital could work for you, it may be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With HCI Group trading at $158.67 alongside an indicated discount to both analyst targets and intrinsic value models, the key question is simple: is this recent weakness an opportunity or is the market already factoring in the company’s future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 35.2% Undervalued

    The most followed narrative puts HCI Group’s fair value at $245, well above the last close of $158.67, and builds that gap on detailed growth and profitability assumptions.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of $202.5 for HCI Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $225.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $190.0.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what is sitting behind that higher fair value, and the updated $245 target? The story focuses on revenue, shifting margins, and a future earnings multiple that is treated with care rather than taken for granted. Curious which assumptions carry the model and how they compare over the next few years? The full narrative presents those moving parts in plain numbers.

    Result: Fair Value of $245 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, the story can change quickly if Florida remains HCI’s main exposure and if reinsurance costs or the Exzeo separation hit earnings harder than analysts currently model.

    Find out about the key risks to this HCI Group narrative.

    Build Your Own HCI Group Narrative

    If you see the numbers differently, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your HCI Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    Do not stop at one stock. Your next move could be sitting in plain sight if you take a few minutes to scan other opportunities right now.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.