ManpowerGroup (MAN) Q4 Profit Tests Bearish Narratives After Trailing Twelve Month Loss

ManpowerGroup (MAN) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$4.7b and basic EPS of US$0.65, while trailing twelve month figures show revenue of US$18.0b and a small net loss of US$13.3m, reflecting an unprofitable year overall. Over recent quarters, the company has seen quarterly revenue range from US$4.1b to US$4.7b and basic EPS swing between a loss of US$1.44 and a profit of US$0.65. This sets up a results season where the key question for investors is how quickly margins can stabilize and rebuild.

See our full analysis for ManpowerGroup.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to measure them against the widely followed narratives around ManpowerGroup's profitability, growth outlook and risk profile to see which views are supported and which are being challenged by the latest results.

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Trailing 12 months still show a US$13.3m loss

• Over the last 12 months, ManpowerGroup generated US$17.96b of revenue but reported a net loss of US$13.3m, so the full year remains in the red even though Q4 itself showed a US$30.2m profit.
• What stands out for a bearish view is that this loss comes after several years of worsening profitability, with losses growing at about 31.1% per year, which sits uncomfortably alongside the recent quarterly profit and keeps attention on how durable any improvement really is.
  • Critics highlight that a trailing loss, even if relatively small against US$17.96b of revenue, lines up with the description of weak past earnings quality rather than a clean turnaround.
  • The same data set flags that margins are still negative on a trailing basis, so a single profitable quarter does not yet counter the longer five year trend of rising losses.

Revenue growth at 3.6% trails wider US market

• Revenue growth over the last 12 months is cited at about 3.6% annually, compared with a 10.6% annual reference rate for the broader US market, so ManpowerGroup’s top line is expanding more slowly than that benchmark.
• For a bullish narrative that leans on a cyclical recovery in staffing demand, this slower 3.6% revenue growth prompts careful scrutiny, because it suggests the business has not been keeping pace with the broader market even as it continues to generate nearly US$18b in annual sales.
  • Supporters might point out that quarterly revenue has held in a relatively tight band between roughly US$4.1b and US$4.7b across the last year, showing scale and stability.
  • At the same time, the combination of slower revenue growth and trailing losses means any bullish case built around earnings improvement has to work against evidence of only modest top line progress so far.

Low 0.1x P/S versus peers at 0.5x

• The shares trade on a P/S of 0.1x, compared with about 0.5x for peers and 1.2x for the wider US Professional Services industry, and a DCF fair value of US$49.22 is also cited as being above the current US$36.33 share price.
• Supporters of a bullish angle argue that this wide valuation gap, plus forecasts for earnings growth of around 56.52% per year and an expected return to profitability within three years, leans in favor of upside if those projections are met, yet the same data set shows the company is currently loss making and paying a 3.96% dividend that is not covered by earnings or free cash flow.
  • On one hand, trading about 26.2% below the DCF fair value and at a discount P/S multiple ties in with the idea that the market is pricing in a cautious view of future cash flows.
  • On the other hand, the unprofitable trailing 12 month record and weak dividend coverage are clear quantitative reasons some investors may see the low multiple as a reflection of risk rather than a straightforward bargain.

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Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on ManpowerGroup's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

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ManpowerGroup’s recent results combine a trailing twelve month loss, slower 3.6% revenue growth than the wider US market, and a dividend that is not covered by earnings or free cash flow.

If you want income that looks more secure, check out these 1804 dividend stocks with yields > 3% today so you can focus on companies with stronger coverage and more sustainable payouts.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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