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    Assessing Super Group (SGHC) Valuation After Guidance Update And Special Dividend Announcement

    Simply Wall St·01/30/2026 20:29:36
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    Why Super Group (SGHC) is back on investors' radar

    Super Group (SGHC) has caught fresh attention after updating its full year 2025 revenue guidance to within a US$2.17b to US$2.27b range and declaring a US$0.25 per share special dividend.

    See our latest analysis for Super Group (SGHC).

    The latest guidance update and special dividend have landed against a mixed trading backdrop, with a 1-day share price return of 1.72% to US$10.07 but a 30-day share price return showing a 14.95% decline. A very large 3-year total shareholder return suggests that longer term momentum has been strong overall.

    If SGHC’s recent move has you thinking about where else growth stories could emerge, this could be a good moment to widen your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    With the share price slipping 14.95% over the past month, but still reflecting a very large 3-year total shareholder return and an indicated intrinsic discount of about 53%, is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 42.9% Undervalued

    With Super Group (SGHC) last closing at $10.07 against a widely followed fair value view of $17.63 per share, the current setup hinges on how durable its earnings and margin story proves to be over the next few years.

    Accelerated investment in technology, including the addition of a Group CTO and scaling AI/data-driven initiatives, is enhancing product offerings, automating processes, and driving cost and marketing efficiencies, likely leading to structurally higher EBITDA margins and improved free cash flow.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what happens when rising revenue, richer margins and a lower future earnings multiple are all wired into one model? The most followed narrative links each of these moving parts into a single fair value, built on explicit assumptions for growth, profitability and the discount rate. Curious which of those inputs does the heavy lifting in getting to $17.63?

    Result: Fair Value of $17.63 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this hinges on Super Group maintaining growth in tightly regulated markets and avoiding margin pressure if competition forces heavier marketing or technology spending than expected.

    Find out about the key risks to this Super Group (SGHC) narrative.

    Build Your Own Super Group (SGHC) Narrative

    If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a full Super Group story yourself in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Super Group (SGHC) research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Ready for more investment ideas?

    If Super Group has caught your eye, do not stop there, broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas built from clear financial filters and real data.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.