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    Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Is Down 7.8% After Guiding to Sharply Lower 2025 Core Earnings - Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·01/30/2026 15:30:59
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    • In January 2026, Canadian Solar Inc. issued guidance for 2025, forecasting net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 900 million and RMB 1,100 million, implying a very large year-on-year decline versus 2024.
    • The company also expects a similarly sharp drop in profit after excluding non-recurring items, highlighting pressure on its core earnings power rather than one-off effects.
    • Against this backdrop of sharply lower guided 2025 profits, we will examine how the earnings reset affects Canadian Solar's investment narrative.

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    What Is Canadian Solar's Investment Narrative?

    For Canadian Solar, the core investment case still rests on believing in its ability to turn a broad solar and storage platform into consistent, cash-backed earnings. The recent 2025 profit guidance, pointing to a very large year-on-year decline, directly challenges that belief in the near term and helps explain the sharp pullback in the share price over recent weeks. Short term, the key catalysts now skew toward evidence that the North American reshoring plans, new joint ventures and product launches in low-carbon modules and storage can support margins rather than just volumes. At the same time, the guidance underlines existing risks around thin profitability, high non-cash earnings and interest coverage. The recent legal win at the PTAB helps on the IP front, but does little to offset the earnings reset.

    However, investors should pay close attention to how fragile current profit margins appear. Despite retreating, Canadian Solar's shares might still be trading above their fair value and there could be some more downside. Discover how much.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CSIQ 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CSIQ 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    Six fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span US$7 to US$38 per share, underlining how differently people see Canadian Solar today. Set against the company’s sharply lower 2025 profit guidance, this spread invites you to weigh upside hopes against the very real earnings and balance sheet pressures now in focus.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Canadian Solar - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Canadian Solar Narrative

    Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.