Assessing Bristow Group (VTOL) Valuation After $500 Million Debt Refinance And Credit Facility Extension

Bristow Group (VTOL) has just closed a private offering of US$500 million in 6.750% senior secured notes due 2033 and extended its asset-based revolving credit facility to 2031, reshaping its debt profile.

See our latest analysis for Bristow Group.

The financing news comes after a strong run in the shares, with Bristow Group’s 30-day share price return of 20.7% and year to date share price return of 18.37% pointing to building momentum, alongside a 1-year total shareholder return of 28.08% and 5-year total shareholder return of 74.29%.

If this kind of refinancing story has you thinking about other opportunities in related areas, it could be a good moment to scan aerospace and defense stocks for ideas beyond Bristow Group.

With Bristow’s shares already up strongly and the stock trading about 19% below the current US$52.50 analyst price target, the key question now is whether there is still a buying opportunity here or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 15.8% Undervalued

Bristow Group's most followed narrative points to a fair value of $52.50 versus the last close at $44.20, framing the current upside debate.

The company's investment in next-generation electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft and partnerships (e.g., the Norway Advanced Air Mobility Sandbox) places it at the forefront of technological adoption. This may lower long-term operating costs and open new service lines, which could support future margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue profile and profitability this narrative is assuming, and how that feeds into the valuation math and future earnings multiple assumptions?

Result: Fair Value of $52.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on Bristow keeping cost pressures in check and avoiding supply chain bottlenecks that could squeeze margins and limit its ability to meet demand.

Find out about the key risks to this Bristow Group narrative.

Another View: Cash Flows Paint A Tougher Picture

While the popular narrative suggests Bristow Group could be undervalued relative to the US$52.50 price target, our DCF model takes a much harsher stance. On that basis, the shares trade well above an estimated future cash flow value of US$6.89. This raises the question of which lens you trust more: the story, or the spreadsheet.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Bristow Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 884 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Bristow Group Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own view against the data, you can build a full Bristow story yourself in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bristow Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Bristow has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other angles the market might be overlooking right now.

• Spot potential value candidates early by scanning these 884 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may trade at discounts to their underlying cash flows.
• Explore long term themes in artificial intelligence by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks that are tied to real business use cases rather than hype.
• Identify income opportunities by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that already offer yields above 3%.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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