Assessing Penumbra (PEN) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum

Why Penumbra Is On Investors’ Radar Right Now

Penumbra (PEN) has recently caught attention after a period of strong share price moves, with the stock showing double digit returns over the past month and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Penumbra.

That recent surge fits into a wider upswing, with a 16.11% year to date share price return and a 31.09% total shareholder return over the past year suggesting momentum has been building rather than fading.

If Penumbra has you rethinking your healthcare exposure, it could be a good moment to scan healthcare stocks for other listed names with different risk and return profiles.

With Penumbra trading at a recent close of $359.26, slightly above an average analyst price target of $348.53 and with its current intrinsic value estimate below the market price, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 6% Overvalued

The most followed narrative puts Penumbra's fair value at $337.94 per share, which sits below the recent $359.26 close and raises questions about how much optimism is already in the price.

The soon to be released STORM PE randomized trial is poised to provide Level 1 evidence comparing Penumbra's thrombectomy technology to standard anticoagulation for pulmonary embolism; a positive outcome could expand guideline adoption, significantly accelerate procedure volumes, and drive substantial revenue growth by rapidly increasing penetration in a very underpenetrated, large market.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what earnings path and margin profile sit behind that fair value and premium future P/E multiple, and how much global expansion is already baked in?

Result: Fair Value of $337.94 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on clinical and market execution, since disappointing STORM PE follow up data or slower global uptake could quickly challenge these optimistic assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Penumbra narrative.

Build Your Own Penumbra Narrative

If you see the numbers differently, or you would rather test your own assumptions against the model inputs, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Penumbra.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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