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    The Bull Case For Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Could Change Following A US$127.5 Million Global Supply Deal

    Simply Wall St·01/18/2026 00:34:32
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    • Sherwin-Williams has in the past been awarded a US$127.5 million global contract, running from 2026 over five years, to supply paints, coatings, solvents, preservation products, and associated engineering and technical services following a competitive bidding process.
    • This global agreement underlines the company’s ability to win large, multi-year supply deals that can enhance revenue visibility and support its service-led offerings.
    • Now we’ll examine how this long-term global supply contract could influence Sherwin-Williams’ investment narrative around growth initiatives and margin resilience.

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    Sherwin-Williams Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Sherwin-Williams, you need to believe its direct distribution, strong contractor relationships, and disciplined cost control can offset cyclical softness in housing and DIY demand. The new US$127.5 million, five-year global contract improves medium term revenue visibility, but it does not fundamentally change the near term catalyst of volume recovery or the key risk of margin pressure if demand stays weak and highly fixed manufacturing costs remain underutilized.

    Among recent announcements, the company’s decision to double its annual restructuring savings target to about US$80 million directly complements the new contract. While the contract supports future sales, the enhanced cost savings program remains central to the margin resilience story, especially if architectural volumes or global supply chain efficiency fall short of management’s expectations.

    Yet investors should be aware that overreliance on North American housing and DIY channels could become far more problematic if...

    Read the full narrative on Sherwin-Williams (it's free!)

    Sherwin-Williams’ narrative projects $26.3 billion revenue and $3.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.9 billion earnings increase from $2.5 billion today.

    Uncover how Sherwin-Williams' forecasts yield a $386.62 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    SHW 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    SHW 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming earnings could reach about US$3.9 billion by 2028, yet this new contract and the risk of higher raw material costs show just how much those projections, and the underlying narratives, may still shift.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Sherwin-Williams - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Sherwin-Williams Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.