An Intrinsic Calculation For CS Disco, Inc. (NYSE:LAW) Suggests It's 36% Undervalued

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for CS Disco is US$10.57 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• CS Disco is estimated to be 36% undervalued based on current share price of US$6.72
• Analyst price target for LAW is US$7.80 which is 26% below our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of CS Disco, Inc. (NYSE:LAW) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Is CS Disco Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.60m	US$6.50m	US$11.6m	US$18.2m	US$25.5m	US$33.0m	US$40.0m	US$46.4m	US$52.1m	US$57.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 78.94%	Est @ 56.24%	Est @ 40.34%	Est @ 29.22%	Est @ 21.43%	Est @ 15.98%	Est @ 12.16%	Est @ 9.49%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.5%	US$1.5	US$5.5	US$9.1	US$13.1	US$17.0	US$20.2	US$22.6	US$24.2	US$25.0	US$25.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$163m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$57m× (1 + 3.3%) ÷ (8.5%– 3.3%) = US$1.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$1.1b÷ ( 1 + 8.5%)¹⁰= US$497m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$660m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$6.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at CS Disco as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.134. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

See our latest analysis for CS Disco

SWOT Analysis for CS Disco

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For CS Disco, we've compiled three relevant elements you should further examine:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for CS Disco that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does LAW's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.