Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For TriMas Corporation's (NASDAQ:TRS) Shares

TriMas Corporation's (NASDAQ:TRS) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.3x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

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TriMas certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for TriMas

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How Is TriMas' Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, TriMas would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 67% gain to the company's bottom line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 23% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 18% over the next year. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 16%, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that TriMas is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the share price eventually.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of TriMas' analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for TriMas (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

If you're unsure about the strength of TriMas' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.