China Galaxy Securities: The inflection point of the supply and demand improvement cycle is approaching due to the resonance of the landscape and the backlash of internal affairs and technology

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that new technologies in PV BC, perovskite and copper paste are accelerating industrialization, going overseas to enjoy global dividends, and the inflection point of the supply and demand improvement cycle is approaching. In 2026, anti-domestic demand resonates with technology. New energy sources will begin a new cycle in the “15th Five-Year Plan”. AIDC storage, ocean breeze, light storage affordability, and emerging market demand are still highlights.

The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

2025 review and 2026 outlook

In 2025, the situation of excessive demand for landscape storage remains the same. Anti-domestic sales will push for profit recovery, and going overseas will boost profits. As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index +17.66%; the GEM Index +49.57%; and the Telecom Index +39.47%, ranking 7/30th in the industry. Document No. 136 accelerates the full entry of new energy into the market. Anti-domestic sales and technology resonate in 2026, and the 15th Five-Year New Energy starts a new cycle. Demand in emerging markets where AIDC storage, ocean wind, and optical storage are affordable is still a highlight.

Energy storage: two-wheel drive in domestic and foreign policy markets, Chinese enterprises speed up overseas

Large storage is the core incremental. Under the power backup logic, demand for North American AIDC storage increased from about 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GW in 2030, with a CAGR of about 84%, and demand under direct green power connection logic increased from about 78 GWh in 2025 to 475 GW in 2030, with a CAGR of about 44%; Europe will usher in a centralized implementation period in the next 3-5 years (England, Germany, Poland). Demand for industrial and commercial savings in Europe, Australia and emerging markets is strong, and overseas orders from Chinese companies have surged. Domestic IRR is attractive, with a 25-27CAGR of about 37%. Commercial savings are shifting from spread arbitrage to diversified value creation.

Wind power: quantitative profit continues to rise, and the two seas speed up to open up space

Domestic land/sea wind installations in 2026 or 110-120GW/12-16GW, 15 5 or over 120 GW/year, sea breeze 15 GW/year, global sea wind CAGR reached 27% in 25-30 years. Restraining internal volume+increasing quality awareness, land wind unit prices have stabilized, and the decline in sea breezes is limited. The industrial chain has accelerated, overseas orders have been implemented intensively, profit recovery from OEMs can be expected, sea cables and piles have increased profits, and components have benefited from capacity utilization and overseas.

Photovoltaics: reverse internal profit recovery, new technology iteration and global layout lead growth

China is leading the way, installed capacity in 2026 or 230-250GW (optimistic), Europe is recovering, the US and India are booming, and emerging markets are gaining momentum. Industry backlash pushes for profit recovery throughout the industry chain. Good component prices can be expected, and can be seen as early as spring. BC battery production capacity expanded, perovskite moved towards mass production, breakthroughs in less silver conversion technology, and technological iteration drove premiums to reduce costs.

Risk Alerts

The risk that industry policies fall short of expectations; the risk that new technology will not advance as expected; the risk of a sharp rise in raw material prices and difficulties in business operations; the risk of overseas political turmoil and deterioration of the trade environment.