Assessing Nordex (XTRA:NDX1) Valuation After New Multi‑Country Wind Turbine Contract Wins

Nordex (XTRA:NDX1) is back in focus after a series of large contract wins, including a 508 MW Canadian order that introduces its N175/6.X turbine platform to the country with long-term service agreements.

See our latest analysis for Nordex.

These contract wins have arrived alongside a sharp pickup in momentum, with a 30-day share price return of 28.2% and a one year total shareholder return of 197.66% suggesting investors are reassessing Nordex’s growth and risk profile.

If you are looking beyond one wind turbine manufacturer, it could be a good time to scan auto manufacturers for other transition related ideas in the wider transport and energy ecosystem.

With shares up 197.66% over the past year and intrinsic models still indicating an 18.81% discount to value, is Nordex offering genuine upside at today’s €33.10 price, or are markets already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.3% Overvalued

Compared with the last close at €33.10, the most followed narrative sees fair value closer to the mid €20s, which sets up a clear valuation tension.

Recent Street commentary highlights growing optimism around Nordex''s earnings trajectory and valuation, albeit with lingering concerns about order visibility and regional exposure.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that optimism and caution? The narrative leans heavily on multi year revenue expansion, thicker margins, and a lower future earnings multiple than you might expect.

Result: Fair Value of $27.75 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upbeat story could be challenged if European energy policy or auction volumes shift, or if delayed turbine platform investment weakens Nordex’s competitive position.

Find out about the key risks to this Nordex narrative.

Another View: DCF Points to Undervaluation

While the popular narrative suggests Nordex looks 19.3% overvalued at €33.10 against a fair value of €27.75, our DCF model lands in a very different place, with fair value at €40.77. In this framework, the current price sits 18.8% below the estimate, which raises a clear question about which story you think is more realistic.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Nordex for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 885 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Nordex Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with these views and prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised thesis in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nordex research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Nordex has caught your attention, do not stop here, you might miss other opportunities that fit your style just as well.

• Spot potential turnarounds by scanning these 3553 penny stocks with strong financials that pair small size with stronger financial footing than many expect from this corner of the market.
• Ride the artificial intelligence wave by reviewing these 26 AI penny stocks that tie AI themes to early stage pricing.
• Focus on value by checking these 885 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that screen for companies priced below what their cash flows might justify.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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