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    Assessing GEO Group (GEO) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility

    Simply Wall St·01/08/2026 00:41:32
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    GEO Group (GEO) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the shares with a one-month return of about 4% and a roughly 11% decline over the past three months, prompting closer scrutiny of its current valuation.

    See our latest analysis for GEO Group.

    At a share price of $16.19, GEO Group’s 1-year total shareholder return of about 48% decline contrasts with a 3-year total shareholder return of roughly 47% and a 5-year total shareholder return near 91%. This suggests that longer term momentum remains stronger than the more recent trend.

    If GEO’s recent swings have you thinking about portfolio balance, this could be a good moment to look at fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as you search for other interesting ideas.

    With GEO Group trading at $16.19 and sitting near a 50% gap to both its intrinsic value estimate and analyst price target, the key question is whether this is a genuine mispricing or if markets are already accounting for future growth.

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 50% Undervalued

    With GEO Group last closing at $16.19 against a narrative fair value of $32.25, the gap is wide enough to catch investors’ attention.

    The company's recent substantial debt reduction, refinancing at lower rates, and asset sales, together with a newly authorized $300M share repurchase program, are described as reinforcing a positive long-term outlook for earnings per share and financial resilience, directly affecting equity valuation as improved balance sheet strength lowers interest expense and enables capital returns alongside organic revenue growth.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious what kind of revenue path and margin profile could underpin that valuation gap, and what future earnings power those assumptions are pointing to? The full narrative lays out a detailed earnings bridge, a revenue mix shift toward monitoring programs, and a future P/E that is presented as very different from today’s multiple.

    Result: Fair Value of $32.25 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this upbeat story depends heavily on continued federal detention funding and ICE contract ramps. As a result, policy shifts or slower facility utilization could quickly weaken the thesis.

    Find out about the key risks to this GEO Group narrative.

    Build Your Own GEO Group Narrative

    If you look at GEO’s numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a complete thesis yourself in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your GEO Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If GEO has you thinking about what else is out there, this is your cue to cast the net wider and line up your next set of candidates.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.