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    Rockwell Automation (ROK) Valuation Check As AI And Digital Twin Initiatives Draw Increased Attention

    Simply Wall St·01/07/2026 21:41:32
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    Recent attention on Rockwell Automation (ROK) centers on its push into AI, digital twins, and cloud-based industrial software, along with guidance that reflects recurring demand from AI-enabled factory and warehouse automation projects.

    See our latest analysis for Rockwell Automation.

    The latest AI and digital software updates come as Rockwell Automation’s share price sits at US$413.36, with a 90 day share price return of 18.74% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 49.34%, which reflects recent momentum around its automation and digitalization story.

    If you are looking beyond Rockwell Automation for other names tied to AI and digital transformation themes, it could be a good moment to check out high growth tech and AI stocks.

    With the shares close to recent highs and trading slightly above the average analyst price target of US$402.73, the key question is whether Rockwell is now expensive or if the market is still catching up to future growth potential.

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 3.3% Overvalued

    With Rockwell Automation last closing at US$413.36 versus a narrative fair value of roughly US$400, the current price sits slightly ahead of that framework and puts more focus on what is built into the underlying assumptions.

    Substantial investment of $2 billion over the next 5 years in plants, digital infrastructure, and talent is aimed at building competitive capacity, operational efficiency, and supporting higher-margin growth areas. This is laying the groundwork for future margin expansion and long-term EPS growth. Sustained megatrends such as reshoring/nearshoring and manufacturing supply chain diversification (especially in North America and Europe, where Rockwell is strong) are leading to increased new capacity orders, which is expected to improve order intake and drive revenue visibility in coming years.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how a mid single digit revenue path, fatter margins, richer future P/E and a specific discount rate all add up to that fair value? The full narrative spells out which earnings profile, profitability mix and terminal multiple need to line up for today’s price to make sense.

    Result: Fair Value of $400.23 (OVERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, this picture could change quickly if delayed customer CapEx persists, or if the planned US$2b in spending fails to translate into the expected earnings and margin profile.

    Find out about the key risks to this Rockwell Automation narrative.

    Build Your Own Rockwell Automation Narrative

    If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or prefer to shape your own view from the beginning, you can build a personalized Rockwell Automation narrative in a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Rockwell Automation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Rockwell Automation is already on your radar, consider broadening your watchlist with other focused ideas that match how you like to invest.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.