How Trump Is Turning Venezuelan Crude Into Geopolitical Weapon

The U.S.-backed capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has reignited a familiar oil-market debate: Would Venezuelan barrels soon return to global markets and pressure crude prices lower?

Much of Wall Street's initial response has been affirmative. Economists and analysts quickly framed Venezuela's potential reentry as a fresh source of supply in an already well-stocked global market. Yet, energy strategist Jeff Krimmel, PhD owner of Krimmel Strategy Group, is pushing back.

"I do expect U.S. export restrictions," Krimmel told Benzinga in an exclusive interview on Tuesday. His focus was not on whether Venezuelan supply would eventually rise, but on how tightly that supply would be controlled for political ends.

"Part of the motivation is to gain leverage against states that the Trump administration views as adversaries,” he added.

Krimmel expects the shift to accelerate the regionalization of global oil trade, with barrels moving less freely across regions and increasingly staying within their respective hemispheres.

US Policy To Shape Oil Flows

Late Tuesday, President Donald Trump said interim authorities in Caracas had agreed to transfer between 30 million and 50 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude to the U.S., marking a significant escalation in Washington's direct involvement in Venezuela's oil flows.

Under the plan outlined in the statement, the crude would be shipped to U.S. ports, sold at prevailing market prices, and the proceeds placed under U.S. oversight. Trump said the funds would be controlled by the White House to ensure they are used "to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States."

According to the New York Times, the initiative is unfolding alongside broader U.S. pressure on Caracas to expel official advisers from China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran, while actively redirecting Venezuelan crude away from Beijing.

That backdrop reinforces Krimmel's core argument: Venezuelan oil is no longer being positioned as free-flowing supply responding to global price signals, but as a politically managed asset — with destination, timing, and revenue oversight shaped by U.S. policy.

Rather than flooding international markets, Venezuelan barrels appear set to move within clearly defined geopolitical lanes, aligning with Washington's broader objective of constraining rivals' access to energy supplies and reshaping global oil trade along regional lines.

Timing Matters For Oil Prices

Krimmel does not dispute that Venezuelan production is likely to rise from here.

"Supply can only go up, given that the Venezuelan oil sector was already struggling and in perpetual decline," he said.

Where he diverges from consensus is on what that means for prices.

"By the time new Venezuelan production comes online, the global supply surplus will have eroded considerably, if not evaporated completely," Krimmel said. "The world may have use for these new barrels without driving prices further down from here."

Who Benefits From Venezuela’s Oil Industry Recovery?

Krimmel said oilfield service companies are most likely to benefit early from any Venezuelan recovery.

"International service companies may benefit considerably, with U.S.-domiciled Baker Hughes Co. (NASDAQ:BKR), Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL), and Weatherford International plc (NASDAQ:WFRD) all in the mix," he said.

He was more cautious on U.S. producers.

"The only U.S. operators I see even hypothetically getting involved at scale would be ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)," Krimmel said, adding that "there are reasons to be skeptical that any of these would overhaul their capital programs in light of the recent developments in Venezuela."

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