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    Assessing Baytex Energy (TSX:BTE) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum Picks Up

    Simply Wall St·01/07/2026 11:31:10
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    Why Baytex Energy Is Back On Investor Radars

    Baytex Energy (TSX:BTE) has been drawing fresh attention after a period where the share price has moved in different directions over the past year, prompting questions about how its fundamentals stack up today.

    See our latest analysis for Baytex Energy.

    At a share price of CA$4.28, Baytex Energy has recently seen a 19.9% 90 day share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 14.6% contrasts with a weaker 3 year record and a very large 5 year gain. This suggests that momentum has picked up again after earlier volatility in investor sentiment around its operations.

    If Baytex’s recent swings have you thinking about where else capital could work harder, this is a good moment to check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a potential source of fresh ideas.

    With Baytex trading at CA$4.28, sitting on a very large 5 year total return but a weaker 3 year record and an indicated intrinsic discount of about 40%, should you see hidden value here, or assume the market is already pricing in future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative: 15% Undervalued

    With Baytex Energy last closing at CA$4.28 and the most followed narrative pointing to fair value around CA$5.03, the market and the narrative are not fully aligned on what the current price reflects.

    The analysts have a consensus price target of CA$3.95 for Baytex Energy based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of CA$5.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just CA$2.5.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how a company with shrinking forecast revenues and thinner margins still lands above today’s share price? The narrative leans heavily on future cash generation, tight capital discipline and a high implied earnings multiple to back that fair value. Want to see exactly which assumptions carry the most weight in that calculation?

    Result: Fair Value of CA$5.03 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, those fair value arguments still depend on oil prices holding up and Baytex managing heavier exposure to Canadian heavy oil without regulatory or export setbacks.

    Find out about the key risks to this Baytex Energy narrative.

    Build Your Own Baytex Energy Narrative

    If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Baytex Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

    Looking for more investment ideas?

    If Baytex has sparked your interest, do not stop here. You can give yourself a better shot at making informed decisions by checking a few focused stock ideas next.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.