Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation Check After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum

Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) has caught investor attention after a strong past 3 months, with the share price up about 56%, prompting fresh questions about how its valuation lines up with its fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment.

That recent 55.83% 3 month share price return and 9.58% 1 month move stand in contrast to a year to date share price return of 2.03% decline. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 120.98% points to strong underlying momentum.

If Sphere Entertainment’s surge has you thinking about where else strong trends might emerge, it could be a useful moment to scan fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next ideas.

With Sphere Entertainment trading around $92.39, a value score of 2 and an indicated intrinsic discount of about 46%, the key question is whether the stock is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 4.6% Overvalued

With Sphere Entertainment last closing at $92.39 against a most-followed fair value estimate of $88.30, the current price sits slightly above that narrative view.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $53.9 for Sphere Entertainment based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $75.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $35.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue climb, margin shift, and future P/E multiple are baked into that fair value line? The earnings framework behind it is far from simple. The projected path to profitability, share count assumptions, and discount rate all pull in different directions. Want to see exactly how those moving parts add up to that valuation mark?

Result: Fair Value of $88.30 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative can quickly look different if Las Vegas visitation softens, or if future shows fail to match current content and attendance expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Sphere Entertainment narrative.

Another View: DCF Signals A Very Different Story

While the narrative fair value of US$88.30 suggests Sphere Entertainment looks a little expensive at US$92.39, our DCF model points the other way. On that framework, fair value sits closer to US$172.66, putting the current price at roughly a 46.5% discount. Which story do you think fits your expectations better?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Sphere Entertainment for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Sphere Entertainment Narrative

If you would rather weigh the assumptions yourself and stress test different outcomes, you can pull up the numbers, build your own view, and Do it your way in just a few minutes.

A great starting point for your Sphere Entertainment research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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• Chase potential mispricings by scanning these 876 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where the numbers may hint at opportunities the market has not fully focused on yet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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