Tiger Brands Limited's (JSE:TBS) dividend will be increasing from last year's payment of the same period to ZAR39.39 on 19th of January. This makes the dividend yield about the same as the industry average at 4.4%.
We aren't too impressed by dividend yields unless they can be sustained over time. The last dividend was quite easily covered by Tiger Brands' earnings. This indicates that a lot of the earnings are being reinvested into the business, with the aim of fueling growth.
Over the next year, EPS is forecast to fall by 4.8%. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio could reach over 200%, which could put the dividend in jeopardy if the company's earnings don't improve.
View our latest analysis for Tiger Brands
The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. Since 2016, the annual payment back then was ZAR9.50, compared to the most recent full-year payment of ZAR16.44. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 5.6% over that duration. A reasonable rate of dividend growth is good to see, but we're wary that the dividend history is not as solid as we'd like, having been cut at least once.
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. We are encouraged to see that Tiger Brands has grown earnings per share at 25% per year over the past five years. The company doesn't have any problems growing, despite returning a lot of capital to shareholders, which is a very nice combination for a dividend stock to have.
Overall, we think this could be an attractive income stock, and it is only getting better by paying a higher dividend this year. The company is generating plenty of cash, and the earnings also quite easily cover the distributions. We should point out that the earnings are expected to fall over the next 12 months, which won't be a problem if this doesn't become a trend, but could cause some turbulence in the next year. All of these factors considered, we think this has solid potential as a dividend stock.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. As an example, we've identified 2 warning signs for Tiger Brands that you should be aware of before investing. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.