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To own NVIDIA, I think you have to believe AI spending on data center and “physical AI” infrastructure remains robust enough to support its full stack model, while competition and customer ASIC efforts stay manageable. Rubin’s move into full production and broad cloud adoption appears supportive of the near term demand story, while the biggest swing factor in my view is still how hyperscaler capital spending and in house chips evolve over the next few years. The CES news does not materially change that risk.
Of the CES announcements, the expanded Siemens partnership around Rubin powered AI factories stands out to me as most relevant. It reinforces NVIDIA’s attempt to embed Rubin, Omniverse and CUDA X across industrial automation and chip design workflows, creating more reasons for manufacturers and hyperscalers to standardize on its stack. If this ecosystem push succeeds, it could help offset some of the margin and share pressure that might come from customers designing their own accelerators.
Yet behind the excitement around Rubin and new partnerships, investors should also be aware of growing efforts by hyperscalers to build custom silicon and what that could mean for NVIDIA’s long term data center share...
Read the full narrative on NVIDIA (it's free!)
NVIDIA's narrative projects $337.2 billion revenue and $187.9 billion earnings by 2028.
Uncover how NVIDIA's forecasts yield a $253.02 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.
Across 400 fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community, views span roughly US$104 to US$341. You can compare that wide range with the reliance many see on continued hyperscaler AI capex, and decide which risks and opportunities matter most to you by exploring several different viewpoints.
Explore 400 other fair value estimates on NVIDIA - why the stock might be worth 44% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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