Assessing Alumis (ALMS) Valuation After Positive Envudeucitinib Phase 3 Trial Success

Why the envudeucitinib data matters for Alumis shareholders

Alumis (ALMS) reported that its Phase 3 ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 trials for envudeucitinib in moderate to severe plaque psoriasis met all primary and secondary endpoints with high statistical significance, a key clinical milestone for the company.

The company also said it plans to file a New Drug Application with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in the second half of the year, which would move envudeucitinib from late stage development toward potential commercialization if regulators agree.

See our latest analysis for Alumis.

The share price has reacted sharply to the ONWARD data and follow on offering, with a 1 day share price return of 95.31% and a 90 day share price return of 266.37%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 101.61% points to strong momentum rather than a short lived spike.

If positive trial readouts have your attention, this could be a useful moment to broaden your watchlist with other healthcare stocks. You might uncover healthcare names at earlier points in their story.

With Alumis shares up more than 100% over the past year and the stock trading at $16.23 versus an average analyst target of $27.71, investors may need to consider whether there is still an attractive entry point or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Price to book of 4.4x, is it justified?

Alumis shares last closed at $16.23 and the stock trades on a P/B of 4.4x, which is well above peer and industry averages.

P/B compares a company’s market value to its net assets, so a higher ratio often reflects expectations for future value creation that is not yet on the balance sheet. For a clinical stage biopharma group like Alumis, that usually means investors are focusing on the potential of its pipeline rather than current profitability.

Alumis is currently unprofitable, has a negative return on equity of 63.71% and is not forecast to reach profitability over the next three years. The P/B premium therefore suggests the market is putting a high weight on the growth outlook instead of current earnings power. Analysts also expect revenue to grow faster than 20% a year and faster than the broader US market, which may help explain why equity holders are willing to pay more than 4 times book value even with a short cash runway and recent shareholder dilution.

Compared with a peer average P/B of 1.5x and a US pharmaceuticals industry average of 2.5x, Alumis trades at a materially richer valuation multiple. This implies investors are paying a substantial premium relative to sector norms for this pipeline story.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Result: Price to book of 4.4x (OVERVALUED)

However, the story can change quickly if future trial results disappoint or if Alumis needs further equity raises, which could pressure both valuation and sentiment.

Find out about the key risks to this Alumis narrative.

Build Your Own Alumis Narrative

If you see the Alumis story differently or prefer to work through the data yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alumis research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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