Is Lupin Limited's (NSE:LUPIN) Recent Stock Performance Tethered To Its Strong Fundamentals?

Lupin (NSE:LUPIN) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 13% over the last three months. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Lupin's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Lupin is:

22% = ₹43b ÷ ₹197b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2025).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every ₹1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ₹0.22 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Lupin

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Lupin's Earnings Growth And 22% ROE

At first glance, Lupin seems to have a decent ROE. Especially when compared to the industry average of 12% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. Probably as a result of this, Lupin was able to see an impressive net income growth of 49% over the last five years. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

As a next step, we compared Lupin's net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 12%.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Lupin fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Lupin Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Lupin's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 19%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 81% of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Besides, Lupin has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 13% over the next three years. However, Lupin's future ROE is expected to decline to 17% despite the expected decline in its payout ratio. We infer that there could be other factors that could be steering the foreseen decline in the company's ROE.

Conclusion

In total, we are pretty happy with Lupin's performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.