Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Weakness

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is back on investor radars after recent share moves, with the stock closing at US$27.32. That puts fresh attention on its earnings profile and longer term return record.

See our latest analysis for Keurig Dr Pepper.

Recent trading has been soft, with a 1 month share price return of a 4.78% decline and a year to date share price return of a 1.48% decline. The 1 year total shareholder return of an 8.15% decline points to fading momentum, despite a 90 day share price return of a 6.80% gain.

If Keurig Dr Pepper has you revisiting your watchlist, this could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Keurig Dr Pepper trading at US$27.32 and flagged with an intrinsic discount and a gap to some analyst targets, the key question is whether you are seeing genuine undervaluation or a market that has already priced in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 21.3% Undervalued

With Keurig Dr Pepper last closing at US$27.32 against a most-followed fair value of about US$34.73, the narrative suggests a meaningful valuation gap to unpack.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $37.333 for Keurig Dr Pepper based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $42.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $30.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of earnings path and margin profile are baked into that value? The model leans on steady growth, richer profitability and a reset future P/E. See how those moving parts fit together and what assumptions drive that gap to today’s price.

Result: Fair Value of $34.73 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the coffee segment’s net sales decline and added tariff costs on green coffee and brewers sit in the background as real tests of that undervaluation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Keurig Dr Pepper narrative.

Build Your Own Keurig Dr Pepper Narrative

If this story does not quite line up with your view, or you would rather pull the numbers yourself and shape your own thesis, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Keurig Dr Pepper research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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