Could 2026 be the year when CBA stock implodes?

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) stock had a fascinating 2025.

It really was a tale of two halves when it comes to CBA's year. The ASX 200 bank share enjoyed a highly successful six-month period between January and late June, with the notable exception of the 'liberation day' April wobble. Commonwealth Bank shares hit several new all-time records in the first half of last year, culminating in the still-reigning record high of $192 a share that we saw mid-year.

But one June was over, CBA's momentum stalled. The bank spent the back half of 2025 drifting away from that high, finally getting down to just above $151 a share by mid-November.

CBA stock recovered a little by the time New Year's Eve came around, though, ending the year at $160.57 a share.

Even so, that's a good 16% or so away from that June all-time high. The bank's highs still more than offset the late-year drift in 2025, with CBA recording a 4.78% gain for the year. That's quite a contrast to the bank's far more lucrative 2024. That year saw CBA stock gain almost 40%.

But we are in 2026 now. So what might this year hold in store for this ASX 200 bank share? Could 2026 finally be the year that CBA stock implodes, as many experts have been predicting?

Will CBA stock implode in 2026?

Of course, no one knows how a stock might fare over the coming year. There are an infinite number of possibilities, and picking the one that will eventuate is, at best, a fiendishly difficult task for even a seasoned professional.

But that doesn't mean we can't delve into the field of educated guesswork.

Let's look at the facts. As we discussed last month, CBA stock is incontestably expensive by global bank standards. Today, it sports a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.9. That's despite low single-digit earnings growth over FY2025, and with no tangible signs of an improvement going forward.

Put simply, CBA's shares have banked a 50% gain over the past three years without corresponding profit growth. That leaves the bank vulnerable to a share price correction.

That could either come in the form of a sharp implosion, or a gradual stagnation that occurs over a number of years. That latter scenario is similar to what CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) has experienced since 2020. Given CBA's sheer size (gifting it the right to soak up massive amounts of index fund and superannuation capital), I think this is the most likely scenario.

So if I were a betting man, I would not put money on a dramatic CBA stock price implosion this year. However, I think CBA's 2026 will look far more similar to its 2025 than its 2024. And that's if it's lucky. Let's see what happens.

The post Could 2026 be the year when CBA stock implodes? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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