Sheng Yuan Holdings Limited's (HKG:851) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Sheng Yuan Holdings Limited (HKG:851) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 28% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 18% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Following the firm bounce in price, Sheng Yuan Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 32.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Sheng Yuan Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Sheng Yuan Holdings

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Sheng Yuan Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Sheng Yuan Holdings?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Sheng Yuan Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 62%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 60% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 21% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Sheng Yuan Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Sheng Yuan Holdings' P/E

Shares in Sheng Yuan Holdings have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Sheng Yuan Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 5 warning signs for Sheng Yuan Holdings you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.