Sudden changes in the situation in Venezuela are disturbing the expectations of the oil market! US oil stocks surged, Chevron (CVX.US) surged 10% before the market

The Zhitong Finance App learned that American Petroleum's stock prices generally rose during Monday's pre-market trading. Earlier, US President Trump said that after arresting Nicolas Maduro last weekend, the US plans to “take over” Venezuela.

With special permission from the US, Chevron (CVX.US), the only US oil giant still operating in Venezuela, once rose by 10%. ConocoPhillips (COP.US) and ExxonMobil (XOM.US) shares rose simultaneously.

This rise in stock prices is due to market expectations that US sanctions against the Venezuelan leadership may ease restrictions on the country's crude oil, allowing more crude oil to flow to US buyers. This is critical for refiners — when supply is tight or discounted, crude oil categories and production locations can quickly impact costs and profit margins.

Venezuelan crude oil is mostly heavy crude oil with high sulfur content (that is, crude oil with a high sulfur content). The refineries along the Gulf Coast of the United States were built decades ago, and the equipment was originally adapted to the processing needs of heavy crude oil. Pepperstone research strategist Ahmad Assiri pointed out that this oil “is highly compatible with the US Gulf of Mexico refinery configuration.”

As an enterprise that still sticks to the country after the nationalization of Venezuelan oil assets at the beginning of this century, Chevron occupies the most favorable position among global oil giants and is expected to take the lead in benefiting after the US strengthens its control over the world's largest crude oil reserve country. Furthermore, an international arbitration body ruled that due to the nationalization of assets in the early 2000s, Venezuela still owes ConocoPhillips more than 8 billion US dollars, while ExxonMobil still has about 1 billion US dollars in arrears in compensation.

However, despite heightened geopolitical risks, international oil prices bucked the trend and fell for a while. Traders pointed out that the current supply of crude oil is sufficient, and OPEC+ maintains stable production, which is the main reason for the decline in oil prices.

In addition to this, it is currently unclear whether global oil companies are willing to invest huge sums of money in a country managed by an interim government supported by the United States in the absence of established laws and fiscal rules.

ConocoPhillips said last weekend that it is too early to speculate on future commercial activity. In 2024, the US company, which once dominated Venezuela, obtained a series of licenses issued by the US government, creating favorable conditions for it to recover part or all of the losses caused by the confiscation of assets in the country.

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods made it clear in an interview in November last year that the company would keep a close eye on any potential opportunities in Venezuela, but would be cautious given the lessons of historical asset expropriation.

Although the Trump administration has imposed a partial maritime blockade on Venezuela, Chevron, which holds oil extraction and export licenses issued by the US government, is still maintaining business operations in the Commission, and oil transportation work has not been significantly affected.

Analysts and traders pointed out that although Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, it currently contributes less than 1% to global supply. The complete restoration of the country's critical oil infrastructure, as well as the complete liberalization of crude oil trade, may take years.