Is It Too Late To Consider Jabil (JBL) After Its Strong Multi Year Share Price Run?

• If you are wondering whether Jabil’s current share price still offers value after a strong run, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about the stock.
• Jabil shares most recently closed at US$240.39, with returns of 2.3% over 7 days, 9.2% over 30 days and 58.4% over 1 year. The 3 year return is very large and the 5 year return is also very large.
• Recent coverage has focused on Jabil’s role as a major electronics manufacturing services provider and its positioning with large global customers. This helps explain why investors continue to pay attention to the stock. At the same time, broader commentary around outsourcing trends and supply chain resilience has kept interest in contract manufacturers like Jabil in the spotlight.
• On our valuation checks Jabil scores 3 out of 6, and you can see the breakdown in this valuation score. Next we will look at what different valuation methods say about the shares and then finish with a way of thinking about value that goes beyond the usual models.

Jabil delivered 58.4% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Electronic industry.

Approach 1: Jabil Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash a company may generate in the future, then discounts those cash flows back to today to reach an estimate of what the business could be worth right now.

For Jabil, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about US$953.8 million. Simply Wall St then uses analyst estimates for the next few years and extends those projections out over a decade, with free cash flow estimates reaching roughly US$2.95b by 2035. All of these projected cash flows, along with a terminal value, are discounted back and summed.

On this basis, the DCF output suggests an intrinsic value of about US$350.25 per share. Compared with the most recent share price of US$240.39, the model implies the shares trade at a 31.4% discount to this estimate. This points to Jabil appearing undervalued on this method alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Jabil is undervalued by 31.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 867 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Jabil.

Approach 2: Jabil Price vs Earnings

P/E is a common way to value profitable companies because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that support that share price. In general, higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E ratio, while lower growth expectations or higher risk usually point to a lower, more cautious P/E.

Jabil currently trades on a P/E of 36.53x. That is above the Electronic industry average of 24.68x and roughly in line with the peer average of 37.10x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 31.83x, which is the P/E it would expect for Jabil given factors such as its earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.

This Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broader industry because it adjusts for those company specific drivers rather than assuming all businesses deserve the same multiple. Comparing Jabil’s current P/E of 36.53x with the Fair Ratio of 31.83x suggests the shares are pricing in more optimism than this framework supports. Based on this measure, the stock appears overvalued.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1464 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Jabil Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St you can use Narratives, which let you write your own story for Jabil by linking your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast. This can then be turned into a fair value and compared with the current price to decide if the stock looks interesting to you. All of this is available within an accessible tool on the Community page that updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might lean toward a higher fair value closer to US$259.25 based on expectations around AI servers, cybersecurity partnerships, and the expanded India and pharmaceutical exposure. Another might anchor nearer the lower analyst target of US$176.00 if they are more cautious about tariff risks, segment softness and inventory. Your own Narrative can sit anywhere in between.

Do you think there's more to the story for Jabil? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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