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    Will iPhone 17 Momentum and Vision Pro Setbacks Shift Apple’s (AAPL) Long‑Term Growth Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·01/04/2026 22:27:47
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    • In recent days, Apple announced that longtime finance executive Ben Borders became principal accounting officer on January 1, 2026, while analysts renewed coverage and commentary around the iPhone 17 launch, Vision Pro slowdown, and broader services and AI efforts.
    • Together, strong early interest in the iPhone 17, concerns about Apple’s premium valuation, and setbacks for the Vision Pro headset are reshaping how investors weigh the company’s growth engines at the start of 2026.
    • We’ll now examine how the strong iPhone 17 cycle, alongside Vision Pro retrenchment, may influence Apple’s longer-term investment narrative.

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    Apple Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Apple today, you effectively need to believe its iPhone centered ecosystem, growing Services business, and on device AI roadmap can offset hardware maturity and regulatory pressures. Recent news around strong early iPhone 17 demand and Vision Pro setbacks does not materially alter that near term, but it sharpens the focus on the coming earnings update as the key catalyst and keeps tariff, China exposure, and premium valuation as the dominant risks.

    Among recent developments, Raymond James resuming coverage with a Market Perform rating directly ties into these questions, pointing to iPhone 17 as a near term driver while emphasizing tariff related cost pressures, component pricing, and supply chain concentration in China as key watchpoints for margins and upgrade driven growth.

    Yet even with strong early iPhone 17 interest, investors should be aware of how rising tariffs and concentrated China supply chains could...

    Read the full narrative on Apple (it's free!)

    Apple's narrative projects $477.4 billion revenue and $133.6 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.3% yearly revenue growth and a $34.3 billion earnings increase from $99.3 billion today.

    Uncover how Apple's forecasts yield a $286.58 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AAPL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AAPL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    118 members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Apple’s fair value spread between about US$175 and US$309 per share. Against that wide range, concerns about tariff related cost pressures and China supply chain risk give you important context for how its future profitability could evolve.

    Explore 118 other fair value estimates on Apple - why the stock might be worth as much as 14% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Apple Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.