Harley-Davidson (HOG): Rethinking Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Harley-Davidson (HOG) has slipped again over the past month, extending a rough patch that now stretches across the past 3 months. With shares near 20 dollars, investors are rethinking what the current price already assumes.

See our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson.

That latest slide sits on top of a much tougher stretch, with the 1 year total shareholder return down sharply and the 3 year total shareholder return even weaker, signalling fading momentum as investors reassess growth prospects and brand risk.

If Harley-Davidson’s recent volatility has you comparing options, this could be a good moment to explore other auto manufacturers that might offer a different balance of growth and resilience.

With revenue and earnings under pressure, but the share price sitting at a sizable discount to analyst targets, the key debate now is simple: is Harley-Davidson mispriced value or is the market correctly discounting future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 24.9% Undervalued

Compared to Harley-Davidson’s last close at 20.64 dollars, the most followed narrative pegs fair value materially higher, framing today’s weakness as a potential disconnect.

The new partnership in HDFS unlocks significant cash ($1.25B) and reduces leverage, enabling accelerated share buybacks and freeing up $300M for growth investments. This can directly bolster EPS and future revenue streams through both financial engineering and new business initiatives.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how shrinking top line expectations can still justify a higher value tag, while margins and share count assumptions quietly do the heavy lifting? Read on.

Result: Fair Value of $27.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weak demand and ongoing inventory clearance pressure could further erode margins and challenge assumptions behind the undervaluation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Harley-Davidson narrative.

Build Your Own Harley-Davidson Narrative

If this angle does not quite fit your view, or you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Harley-Davidson research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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