To the annoyance of some shareholders, HUB Cyber Security Ltd. (NASDAQ:HUBC) shares are down a considerable 61% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 95% share price decline.
Following the heavy fall in price, HUB Cyber Security's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the IT industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 2.2x and even P/S above 9x are quite common. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
See our latest analysis for HUB Cyber Security
For example, consider that HUB Cyber Security's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing revenue performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/S. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on HUB Cyber Security will help you shine a light on its historical performance.There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like HUB Cyber Security's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 13%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 59% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this information, we are not surprised that HUB Cyber Security is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.
The southerly movements of HUB Cyber Security's shares means its P/S is now sitting at a pretty low level. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of HUB Cyber Security revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 5 warning signs for HUB Cyber Security (3 are a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on HUB Cyber Security, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.