CICC: Domestic demand for mainland cars is expected to face challenges this year, and overseas sales are growing steadily. Proposals focus on intelligent driving, humanoid robots, and liquid cooling in data centers

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is expected to face certain challenges under the continuation of mainland automobile industry policies, and overseas sales will grow steadily. In terms of investment strategy, components are superior to complete vehicles, and focus on the profit valuation opportunities brought about by AI-related layouts such as robots, intelligent driving, and data center liquid cooling.

In terms of passenger cars, the bank indicates that domestic demand is still facing certain challenges, underpinned by two new policies. At present, domestic sales have gradually broken through the previous high in 2017. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that the trade-in policy will still form a certain foundation, but the challenges of sales growth are increasing, and more attention needs to be paid to the opportunities brought about by pattern differentiation, globalization, and intelligence. Supply-side technological innovation and model iteration are driving the increase in penetration rate and supporting new energy sources to maintain double-digit growth. The bank is more optimistic about the middle and high-end new energy market with resilient demand, and is concerned about leading tactical adjustments and opportunities for traditional new energy brands to catch up with latecomers.

In terms of commercial vehicles, the bank points out that the sea opens up room for growth and focuses on the trend of electric intelligence. The bank believes that the 2026 commercial vehicle scrapping and renewal policy is expected to continue, with some support for domestic demand. It is optimistic that strong demand in Asia, Africa and Latin America will support heavy truck exports, and that the increase in European energy penetration will support bus export prosperity. Furthermore, the bank determined that the domestic sales penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks will reach about 35% in 2026; L2+ class assisted driving heavy trucks will achieve a breakthrough from 0 to 1 in 2025, and the penetration rate may reach single digits in 2026. Commercial vehicle leaders have a higher willingness and ability to pay dividends, and 1Q26 is more defensive.

In terms of components, the AI circuit has a multi-dimensional layout, and growth is fueling valuation upgrades. In 2025, Chinese auto parts were driven by pressure from certain downstream customers. The bank believes that the growth potential of the industrial chain in 2026 may shift from internal drive to external expansion. In 2026, it is proposed to focus on the growth drivers and valuation increases that will gradually be unleashed in the AI-related track layout: the integration of AI technology with the automotive industry and high-end manufacturing sectors accelerates, intelligent driving (L2+ penetration rate continues to rise, L3 mass production is implemented), humanoid robots (T mass production begins, multiple companies accelerate), and data center liquid cooling (computing power demand explodes, domestic production has broad space for replacement). They are providing a core path for component companies to break through traditional business boundaries and open up growth ceilings. At the same time, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to targets related to parts going overseas.