Albena AD (BUL:ALB) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 50% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 47% share price drop.
Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Albena AD's P/E ratio of 10.8x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Bulgaria is also close to 11x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
For example, consider that Albena AD's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Albena AD
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Albena AD's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 60%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 332% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, materially lower than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
In light of this, it's curious that Albena AD's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.
With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for Albena AD looks quite average now. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Albena AD currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. When we see strong earnings with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Albena AD (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
You might be able to find a better investment than Albena AD. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.