Northeast Securities: First Investment to Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) “Increased Holdings” Rating The main traditional refrigeration industry performed brilliantly

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Northeast Securities released a research report saying that the estimated operating income of Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) in 2025-2027 will be 322.6/371.3/44.12 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 42.4/51.2/6.03 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 35/29/25 times. This is the first coverage, giving it an “increase in wealth” rating.

The main views of Northeast Securities are as follows:

Event: The company released its 2025 performance forecast. Traditional refrigeration and automotive thermal management are collaborating, and the company's 25-year performance is expected to increase. It is estimated to achieve net profit of 38.7 to 4.65 billion yuan, +25% to 50% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother is 36.8 to 4.61 billion yuan, +18% to 48% year over year.

The main traditional refrigeration industry performed well. 25H1 increased 25.5% year-on-year

On the one hand, governments around the world have introduced low-carbon energy saving policies to accelerate the green transformation of economic development. Demand for refrigeration and air conditioning control components in overseas markets continues to expand, driving steady growth in refrigeration product exports; on the other hand, benefiting from the explosion in demand for liquid cooling in data centers driven by AI computing power, the company provides core components such as valve pumps and heat exchangers for liquid cooling systems. The 25H1 traditional refrigeration business achieved revenue of 10.39 billion yuan, +25.5% year over year; achieved gross profit margin of 28.2%, +0.65 pct year over year.

The auto zero business is picking up at an accelerated pace, and the customer structure continues to be optimized

Affected by production and sales of Tesla, a major core customer, 25H1 Auto Zero's business revenue was 5.87 billion yuan, an increase of only 8.8% over the previous year. Benefiting from Tesla's production and sales improvements, Tesla delivered 497,000 vehicles worldwide in Q3 (+7.4% year over year), and the company's auto zero business picked up at an accelerated pace. Furthermore, the company's dependence on Tesla has gradually declined, international giants such as GM, and new domestic OEMs such as Xiaomi, Ideal, and Xiaopeng have begun to contribute significant increases, and the company has also successively broken through European customers such as Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Strantis, where progress had been slow before.

Humanoid robots have a clear strategic position, and production capacity is waiting to blossom

The company is deeply bound to Tesla and is the core supplier of electromechanical actuators for Tesla humanoid robots, providing integrated products including rotary and linear actuators. At present, the company has set up a dedicated humanoid robot division and established a production base in Thailand to support the mass production needs of customers. It is expected to contribute an important revenue increase to the company starting in '26.

Risk warning: mass production of humanoid robots falls short of expectations; sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations; performance forecasts and valuations fall short of expectations.