SDIC Securities: The introduction of the home appliance trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to boost consumer electronics consumption

The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities released a research report saying that the implementation of the home appliance trade-in policy in 2026 will reduce the scope of support for the subsidy policy next year, the subsidy ratio will be lowered, and focus more on energy-efficient products. The overall content is basically in line with market expectations, which is expected to stimulate marginal improvement in domestic sales of home appliances and promote the optimization of the industry's product structure. Domestic consumer electronics consumption is expected to maintain steady performance, and white and black appliance companies with R&D, channel and brand advantages will benefit more from the new policy; in terms of export sales, trade conflicts between China and the US tend to ease, tariff pressure is expected to decrease, and global production capacity of home appliance companies will gradually be released, and emerging markets will continue to contribute more.

The main views of SDIC Securities are as follows:

Incident: On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the “Notice on Implementing Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In Policies in 2026". Supports trade-in of home appliances. Individual consumers buy products with Class 1 energy efficiency or water efficiency standards in 6 categories of household appliances, such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, and are subsidized at 15% of the product's sales price. Each consumer can subsidize 1 item of each type of product, and the subsidy is not more than 1,500 yuan per item. Furthermore, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to the local authorities in 2026 to support the trade-in capital plan for consumer goods.

The scope of support, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms for the 2026 subsidy policy have been optimized

Compared with the 2025 subsidy policy for home appliances, the 2026 subsidy policy is mainly optimized in 3 areas: 1) In terms of scope of support, the 2026 policy focuses on 6 types of products, including refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters. Compared with the scope of 2025 policy support, 6 types of products such as household stoves, range hoods, microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers have been reduced.

2) In terms of subsidy standards, the 2026 policy will adjust the subsidy ratio for Class 1 energy efficiency or water efficiency products from 20% to 15% of the product price, and products with Class 2 energy efficiency or water efficiency standards will no longer be subsidized. Each consumer can subsidize 1 item of each type of product (air conditioning products will be adjusted from 3 to 1 piece), and the maximum subsidy limit for a single item will be adjusted from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan. Additionally, the first batch of consumer goods trade-in capital in 2026 was 62.5 billion yuan (the first batch of capital in 2025 was 81 billion yuan, see Table 2), YoY -23%. The total amount of subsidy funding is expected to decline in 2026.

3) In terms of implementation mechanisms, the 2026 policy clearly implements uniform subsidy standards throughout the country; establishes an advance subsidy fund allocation system to ease the pressure on enterprises to advance funds; gives full play to the advantages of different sales channels to support offline physical retail; increases offline operators in rural areas and guides online channels to lean towards rural areas to improve the convenience of consumption in rural areas.

The 2025 trade-in policy effectively stimulates the consumption of household appliances

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2025, the retail sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment products in units above the national limit were +14.8% YoY. According to CCTV News, quoting the Ministry of Commerce, in January-November, the country traded in more than 128.44 million units of electric appliances, and it is estimated that the total subsidy amount was about 82.7 billion yuan, driving the consumption of home appliances to about 439.5 billion yuan. The home appliance trade-in subsidy policy drives the release of demand for renewal, effectively boosting the consumer trend of home appliances.

The subsidy policy will be implemented in 2026, and the optimization of rules is expected to promote healthy development of the industry

Domestic consumer electronics consumption has been under pressure since October 2025 due to the early release of demand, declining national subsidies, and high base figures. With the introduction of the national subsidy policy in 2026 and the first batch of 62.5 billion consumer goods trade-in funds disbursed to the local authorities, the domestic sales boom of home appliances is expected to improve. The 2026 subsidy policy focuses on categories such as white batteries and color TVs. Subsidy funds are focused on energy-efficient products, and emphasis is placed on supporting offline physical retail. The new policy is expected to push the home appliance industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green upgrading, and drive product structure optimization. Major appliance companies with R&D, channel, and brand advantages will benefit more from the subsidy policy.

It is recommended to focus on the three main lines of investment

1) We recommend leading white electronics companies with high operating quality and high dividend rates. The brand matrix and channel layout of leading Baidian companies have been improved, and the results of digital reform continue to be realized, which is expected to show growth resilience. At the same time, the cash flow situation of leading Baidian companies is relatively good, and they have maintained high dividend rates for a long time. It is recommended to pay attention to Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home (600690.SH), Gree Electric (000651.SZ), Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ), and Changhong Meiling (000521.SZ).

2) Pay attention to overseas leaders with outstanding global capabilities. Tariff risks are driving home appliance companies to accelerate the transformation of overseas models, and vigorously promote global production capacity layout, brand overseas, and localization strategies. Emerging markets such as Middle East Africa and Latin America have large populations and low household appliance penetration rates, and are expected to continue to contribute to revenue growth for overseas appliance companies. It is recommended to pay attention to Hisense Vision (600060.SH), TCL Electronics (01070), TCL Smart Home (002668.SZ), and Xinbao Co., Ltd. (002705.SZ).

3) Focus on technology home appliance companies that continue to expand new businesses. Technology empowers the upgrading of household appliances, and AI models and robot applications are expected to enhance the product user experience and drive demand expansion. It is recommended to focus on Company 9 (689009.SH), Covos (603486.SH), Stone Technology (688169.SH), and Shiyuan Co., Ltd. (002841.SZ).

Risk Alerts

The implementation of the policy fell short of expectations. Prices of raw materials rose sharply, real estate policy changes were at risk, and the RMB appreciated sharply.