An Intrinsic Calculation For eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) Suggests It's 24% Undervalued

Key Insights

• eBay's estimated fair value is US$116 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• eBay's US$87.74 share price signals that it might be 24% undervalued
• The US$93.97 analyst price target for EBAY is 19% less than our estimate of fair value

Does the December share price for eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Is eBay Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$2.68b	US$3.14b	US$3.06b	US$3.22b	US$3.35b	US$3.48b	US$3.61b	US$3.74b	US$3.87b	US$4.00b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x11	Analyst x8	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Est @ 4.16%	Est @ 3.89%	Est @ 3.70%	Est @ 3.57%	Est @ 3.48%	Est @ 3.41%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.9%	US$2.5k	US$2.6k	US$2.4k	US$2.3k	US$2.2k	US$2.1k	US$2.0k	US$1.9k	US$1.8k	US$1.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$21b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$4.0b× (1 + 3.3%) ÷ (8.9%– 3.3%) = US$73b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$73b÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)¹⁰= US$31b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$52b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$87.7, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at eBay as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.225. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for eBay

SWOT Analysis for eBay

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For eBay, we've put together three fundamental elements you should look at:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with eBay .
2. Future Earnings: How does EBAY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.