US Stock Outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes are falling sharply, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are about to be released. Goldman Sachs supports the US economy's “soft landing” narrative

Pre-market market trends

1. On December 30 (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.06%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.07%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.10%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.25%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.35%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.29%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.46%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 0.34% to $58.28 per barrel. Brent crude rose 0.34% to $61.70 per barrel.

Market news

Goldman Sachs supports the US economy's “soft landing” narrative: the triple downturn of “tariff headwinds dissipation+tax cuts+interest rate cuts” drives growth. Goldman Sachs recently released a research report stating that the strong growth and resilience of the US economy in 2025 is expected to continue after 2026. As tax cuts in the “Big and Beautiful” bill led by the Trump administration begin to work together with more favorable loose financial conditions, and the headwinds caused by tariffs and inflation are greatly mitigated, the macroeconomic narrative of the “soft landing” of the US economy is expected to heat up significantly in 2026 — that is, the growth rate of the US economy in 2026 is expected to increase faster than market expectations. A team of Goldman Sachs economists stressed that although the non-farm payrolls market has recently stagnated, the AI data center construction process is in full swing, the drag effect of more than 100 billion US dollars in tax rebates and tariffs has been drastically reduced, and factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path will jointly boost economic growth momentum.

Bank of America CEO warns: the market has gone mad, and paying too much attention to the Federal Reserve is putting the cart before the horse! Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan pointed out that the US economy far exceeds that of the Federal Reserve, and that the latter should not take so much public attention. When asked about Trump's upcoming nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chairman to replace Powell and what this means for consumers, he said, “People are too obsessed with the Federal Reserve.” “The idea that our fate depends on the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates by 25 basis points is simply a mess in my opinion.” However, when asked about concerns that the Federal Reserve might face political interference after the new chairman takes over, he responded: “If we lose an independent Federal Reserve, the market will punish us.”

As the countdown to the change of head of the Federal Reserve comes, Trump said it is still possible to fire Powell. Trump hinted that he already has a very favorite candidate for the next Federal Reserve chairman, but he is in no hurry to announce it. At the same time, Trump also said that he might still choose to fire current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Trump said Powell “should resign immediately” and that I “would love to fire him.” Trump came close to removing Powell in July, but after negative reactions in financial markets and reports from Bezent and others that the move might threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve and disrupt the market, Trump chose to retreat. Trump said, “Maybe I'll still be able to (do this).” Trump did not specify who his most optimistic candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman is, and said it will be announced “sometime in January.”

The volatility of US debt is about to hit its biggest annual decline since 2009. According to the latest statistics, the ICE BofA MOVE Index — a core measure of the expected volatility of the bond market — fell sharply to around 59 by the close of last Friday, the lowest level since October 2021. The volatility measurement index has dropped sharply from a historically high level of about 99 points at the end of 2024, and is expected to record one of the steepest annual declines since statistics officially began in 1988, second only to the sharp decline in 2009 after the financial crisis. If the US Treasury does reduce the net supply of long-term bonds of 10 years or more in 2026 as expected by the market to drastically reduce the “maturity premium” and use short-term bonds (T-bills) to act as more financing “buffers”, it may cause the price performance of US bonds with a term of 10 years or more, which has been much sluggish in recent years compared to short-term bonds, to show better price performance in an environment of declining volatility.

The outlook for oversupply is overwhelming geopolitical risk, and OPEC+ is expected to repeat this week that it will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. According to three sources, against the backdrop of increasingly obvious signs of global oil oversupply, OPEC+ is expected to stick to its planned suspension of production increases when it meets this weekend. Key OPEC+ member states, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will hold a monthly video conference on January 4 to review a decision initially made in November to suspend further production increases in the first quarter of next year after rapidly resuming oil production earlier this year. Due to the increase in oil supply from OPEC+ and its rivals, and the slowdown in global demand growth, oil prices have fallen by a cumulative total of 17% this year, which is expected to be the biggest annual decline since 2020. Forecasters such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect a record oversupply of oil next year.

Individual stock news

Manus, the AI dark horse, was acquired by Meta (META.US), or became Zuckerberg's first “powerful tool to return blood” to the 600 billion AI infrastructure. Meta has agreed to acquire the technology and core team of Singapore-based artificial intelligence startup Manus. This move will add a smart device product with market popularity to the social media giant's commercialization layout driven by huge AI investments. Meta CEO Zuckerberg has listed AI as the company's number one task and is spending billions of dollars to recruit researchers, build data centers, and develop new models. Zuckerberg promised to invest 600 billion dollars in US infrastructure projects over the next three years, most of which are related to AI. The company has formed a high-cost research team and plans to launch a new state-of-the-art AI model next spring. However, such huge expenses have also raised concerns among some investors, believing that it will be difficult to turn into significant income in the short term.

Dissatisfied with the frequent failure of the board's strategy, the founder of Lululemon (LULU.US) initiated a battle for agency rights. Chip Wilson, founder of Lululemon, said he has initiated an agency battle to nominate three independent directors to join the company's board of directors. Just over two weeks ago, the apparel maker announced the departure of CEO Calvin McDonald, but a successor has yet to be determined. Since this year, Lululemon's stock price has dropped by nearly half, and the company is struggling to gain the support of young and affluent consumers, while also dealing with intense competition from rapidly growing emerging competitors such as Alo Yoga and Vuori, as well as pressure from aggressive investor Elliott Management.

“Cryptocurrency giant whale” Strategy (MSTR.US) takes another step: spending $109 million to increase Bitcoin positions. Strategy revealed that it purchased 1,229 bitcoins for a total price of $108.8 million between December 22 and 28. According to a document submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), this latest batch of bitcoins was purchased at an average price of $88,568 per coin. The funds to buy these tokens came from common stock offerings. The total amount of bitcoins held by the company has increased to 672,497, with a total value of $50.4 billion at an average cost of $74,997. Despite Bitcoin's tough performance this year, Strategy is still profitable.

A rare move! Tesla (TSLA.US)'s official website announced a groundbreaking forecast: Q4 deliveries fear a “big dive.” Tesla recently published a summary of analysts' vehicle delivery estimates on its official website. Among them, the average forecast for the current quarter is more pessimistic than the data compiled by the market. According to Tesla's own statistics, analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down 15% from the same period last year. In contrast, the average estimate compiled by the market was 445,061 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. Although the Tesla Investor Relations team has been compiling average delivery estimates for many years, this data has never been published on the official website in the past. The automaker is facing a second consecutive year of decline in annual sales, and its compilation has compiled an average annual delivery estimate of 1.6 million vehicles, down more than 8% from the same period last year.

Key economic data and event forecasts

Beijing time 22:45 US Chicago PMI for December

The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting at 03:00 Beijing time the next day