RBC Adjusts Vår Energi Model as Operational Issues Hit FY25 Production; Outperform Maintained

02:49 AM EST, 12/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets said Monday it revised its Vår Energi (VAR.OL) model for lower output in 2025 after the company flagged operational challenges at the Johan Castberg and Balder fields, bringing full-year production at the lower end of its guidance range. Vår Energi on Dec. 22 said it expects 2025 production to be between 330,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and 335,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. On the other hand, the Norwegian oil and gas company maintained its production guidance of around 400,000 boepd for 2026. At the same time, analysts reiterated their outperform rating and price target of 44 Norwegian kroner on the back of the company's medium-term production outlook and dividend. "..we forecast that Vår (alongside peer Aker BP [AKER.OL]) can pay out ~63% of its market cap in dividends by 2030; under its 25-30% [cash flow from operations] payout basis, and, we think share prices (as well as dividend yields) already reflect the upcoming commodity price uncertainty with low risk of the dividend being cut for 2026," analysts said.