Huachuang Securities: The impact of scheduled interest rate adjustments will reduce dividend insurance transformation in 2026 or exceed expectations

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that the dividend insurance transformation will accelerate or drive life insurance sales to exceed expectations. From the demand side, the appeal of dividend insurance “bullish options” increased markedly after the fixed interest rate was lowered asymmetrically in September 2025; at the same time, the equity market activity in 2024-2025 helped dividend insurance achieve a higher implementation rate and formed positive feedback on sales; from a financial perspective, deposit moving levels may exceed expectations. Dividend insurance provides medium- to long-term financial management tools, and “fixed income+floating” settlement attributes may provide a path to withstand interest rate risks for low-wind customers. In terms of financial insurance, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization effect of the integration of non-auto insurance reporting banks on the industry's COR.

The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Industry Overview: The cumulative premium growth rate of production and life insurance continues to decline

From January to November 2025, the insurance industry achieved original premium income of 5762.9 billion yuan, +7.6% year over year and -0.4 pct month over month. Among them, personal insurance (including health insurance and accident insurance from property insurance companies) had a total premium of 4420.6 billion yuan, +9.2% year over year; property insurance premiums were 1342.3 billion yuan, +2.5% year over year, and the cumulative premium growth rate of production and life insurance declined. From January to November, life insurance premiums were 33,874 yuan, cumulative year-on-year, -0.5 pct; health insurance and accident insurance both increased, with health insurance reaching 943.9 billion yuan (+2.4% year over year) and accident insurance of 89.2 billion yuan (+2.1% year over year). The health insurance growth rate increased slightly from month to month. Looking at the compensation situation, the cumulative compensation expenses from January to November were 2206.1 billion yuan, accounting for 38.3% of the original premium income, +1.3 pct. Among them, the personal insurance compensation ratio was 30.1%, +0.7 pct month-on-month, property insurance 65.3%, and +2 pct month-on-month.

Personal insurance companies: The monthly decline in life insurance has subsided, and the focus of work is expected to gradually move from closing to a good start in 2026.

From January to November 2025, personal insurance companies achieved original premium income of 4147.2 billion yuan, +9.1% over the same period last year. Among them, life insurance was +11.5% YoY, Health Insurance -0.1% YoY, and Accident Insurance -9.7% YoY. The cumulative increase in life insurance continued to subside, but the monthly premium growth rate improved. In November, life insurance was -2.3% year over year, and the growth rate was +2.9 pct month-on-month.

The short-term impact of the reduction in scheduled interest rates on the sales side has gradually subsided, and the focus of work may gradually shift to a good start in 2026. Starting in early December, all insurance companies are warming up with good start products. From January to November 2025, insured investors' investment funds, mainly universal insurance, added a cumulative total of +2.5% year-on-year payments. The cumulative growth rate was +0.2pct month-on-month, and +7.9% year-on-year in November alone. The active equity market is driving up the market trend, and “fixed+floating income” insurance products are expected to dominate the “fixed income +” circuit. The November premium for separate investment and insurance accounts was +10%. The monthly growth rate fluctuated greatly, and the impact on the base figure was obvious.

Property insurance companies: The cumulative growth rate of most types of insurance declined sequentially, and the increase in health insurance continued to increase.

From January to November 2025, property insurance companies achieved original premium income of 1615.7 billion yuan, +3.9% year-on-year, and a growth rate of -0.1 pct month-on-month. Among them, car insurance accounts for 52%, health insurance 13.5%, agricultural insurance 9%, liability insurance 8%, and accident insurance 3%. Auto insurance accumulated premiums of 843.2 billion yuan in January-November, +3.1% year-on-year and -0.1 pct month-on-month, partly affected by automobile market sales. Vehicle sales in November alone were 3.43 million units, +3.4% year over month, and -5.4 pct month on month; of these, sales of new energy vehicles were 1.82 million units in November, +20.5% year over year, and +0.6 carts month on month. The cumulative premium for non-car insurance in January-November was +4.8% year-on-year, and -0.1pct month-on-month. The cumulative premium growth rate for the insurance segments was: accident insurance +11.2% (-0.4pct month-on-month), health insurance +11.4% (month-on-month +0.8pct), liability insurance +3.9% (same month-on-month), and agricultural insurance +2.1% (-0.4pct month-on-month).

Asset changes: By the end of November 2025, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 40.6 trillion yuan, +13.2% compared to the end of the previous year. Both sides of capital and debt are expected to contribute. Among them, personal insurance companies were $35.75 trillion, +13.3% at the end of the previous year; property insurance companies were $3.15 trillion, +8.5% over the end of the previous year; reinsurance companies were 852.3 billion yuan, +2.9% compared to the end of the previous year; and insurance asset management was 140 billion yuan, +9.6% compared to the end of the previous year. By the end of November 2025, the insurance industry had net assets of $3.68 trillion, +10.7% compared to the end of the previous year.

Recommended order: China Life Insurance H, China Taibao, China Financial Insurance, China Taiping.

Risk warning: Policy changes, natural disasters intensified, long-term interest rates continued to decline, equity markets fluctuated.