SDIC Securities International: In 2026, the photovoltaic industry enters an aggressive period, investors are advised to set out on dips

The Zhitong Finance App learned that SDIC Securities International released a research report saying that the 2025 PV Industry Conference was held, and the competent authorities clearly conveyed a positive signal of “anti-internal scrutiny” to promote the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry. Mainstream enterprises in the photovoltaic industry chain have also gradually reached a consensus on “anti-internal scrutiny” and are strictly self-disciplined. This year, the photovoltaic industry's “anti-encumbrance” initially showed some results. The bank believes that the “anti-domestic roll” effect of the industry will be more obvious next year. Major companies in the industry will benefit from it, and profits are expected to turn losses into profits. Investors are advised to take advantage of the dips and pay attention to investment opportunities for enterprises in the PV industry chain.

SDIC Securities International's main views are as follows:

Incidents

On December 18, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association held the 2025 PV Industry Annual Conference in Xi'an, Shaanxi. The annual conference brought together representatives from competent departments such as the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Commerce, industry experts, and more than 1,000 people from upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to discuss the development path of the PV industry at the critical stage of the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the beginning of the “15th Five-Year Plan”. In their speech, the head of the competent department stressed that in 2026, industry governance will enter an aggressive period, and it is necessary to strengthen production capacity regulation, technical standard upgrades, and industrial chain collaboration.

In 2026, the photovoltaic industry's “anti-encumbrance” will enter a period of attack

At the PV Industry Annual Conference, Director Yang of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology delivered a speech and proposed that in 2026, the PV industry governance will enter an aggressive period, and that the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on six areas of work: 1) further strengthening capacity regulation to accelerate the dynamic balance of production capacity; 2) improving price monitoring mechanisms to curb disorderly competition at low prices and strengthen product quality supervision and spot checks. 3) Strengthen innovation drive and promote high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry; 4) Further improve the standard system to speed up the formulation, revision and implementation of published and mandatory national standards; 5) Urge the industry to further strengthen industry self-discipline and strengthen consultation and consensus among business entities; 6) Promote deepening international cooperation, continuously expand channels of international exchange and cooperation, and promote China's photovoltaic industry to go global at a high level. The regulatory level clearly conveys a positive “anti-internal volume” signal to continue to promote the high-quality development of the industry, strengthen top-level design, and move from quantitative expansion to qualitative leap forward.

Major companies in the photovoltaic industry chain forge an “anti-internal roll” consensus

Mainstream enterprises in the photovoltaic industry respond positively to policy calls, forge an “anti-domestic” consensus, and strictly control production with strict self-discipline. According to data from the Photovoltaic Industry Association, from January to October of this year, production of polysilicon materials and silicon wafers in the main photovoltaic industry chain declined year-on-year. From January to October, polysilicon production was about 1,113 million tons, down 29.6% year on year; silicon wafer production was 560 GW, down 6.7% year on year. Polysilicon production declined year on year for the first time since 2013, and silicon wafer production declined year on year for the first time since 2009. In the battery and module sector, production growth has declined compared to last year. From January to October, cell production was about 560 GW, up 9.8% year on year, and PV module production was about 514 GW, up 13.5% year on year. The decline in production or growth in various sectors reflects the determination and action of mainstream enterprises in the industry to “fight against internal corruption”.

The results of the “anti-internal roll” campaign in the photovoltaic industry chain are showing initial results

Under the conditions of policy support and the self-regulation and cooperation of major companies in the industry, the initial effects of “reversing internal circulation” in the photovoltaic industry chain have been shown. From a price perspective, demand declined in the second half of the year but prices gradually bottomed out. In November, the price of PV modules increased 1.3% year on year; the average factory price of polysilicon increased by 34.4% year on year. From a corporate profit perspective, in the first three quarters of 2025, the revenue of 31 A-share listed companies in the main PV industry chain fell 17% year on year, but the decline narrowed quarterly, and the losses of leading companies narrowed significantly. The pessimistic expectations of the outside world have also changed. At the end of November, 31 A-share listed companies were listed, and the total market value increased 37% over the end of May, and pessimistic expectations of the industry improved marginally.

Investment advice: Lay out outstanding photovoltaic companies such as GCL Technology and Junda Co., Ltd. GCL Technology's unique granular silicon technology has a clear cost advantage in the polycrystalline silicon material industry. Junda Co., Ltd. focuses on photovoltaic cells, leading TOPCON technology, and lays out perovskite laminated batteries and space photovoltaics.

Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations; PV demand weakens next year; market competition is fierce.