Northeast Securities: Four major factors will boost the high computing power boom in space. It is recommended to focus on three directions, including energy materials

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Northeast Securities released a research report saying that space computing power is essentially a distributed space data center in low-Earth orbit. The bank believes that four major factors will boost the boom in space computing power: 1) policy-driven; 2) driven by economic efficiency; 3) driven by application scenarios; 4) driven by reusable rockets+new materials. The space computing power circuit is moving from technical verification to large-scale deployment and implementation. The release of production capacity is a key variable driving the jump in value. It is recommended to focus on three directions: 1) energy materials; 2) radiation-resistant materials/chips; and 3) thermal management materials.

The main views of Northeast Securities are as follows:

Space computing power is essentially a distributed space data center in low-Earth orbit

Traditional satellites are mainly positioned as data collection and forwarding terminals, and their value lies in data acquisition and transmission; as “space AI brains,” computing power satellites can complete intelligent data processing in orbit, solve the pain points of large transmission volume and poor timeliness of traditional models, achieve a paradigm shift from “natural sense of earth calculation” to “day count by days”, and use space advantages to break the bottlenecks faced by terrestrial AI data centers.

Computing power satellite networking, large-scale deployment is imminent

Compared to terrestrial data centers, space data centers can be powered by low-cost solar energy, and can be quickly networked using a modular deployment model. The scale of expansion is almost not limited by physical conditions. The business logic is solid, and China and the US have already started a layout.

The bank believes that four major factors will boost the high computing power boom in space

1) Policy driver: The “Action Plan to Promote the High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)” issued by the National Space Administration in November. The country supports computing power satellite technology research and scenario development through policies such as access deregulation and 100 billion fund support. 2) Driven by economic efficiency: North American data centers will face power shortages for the next three years. The Space Computing Center broke through the bottleneck of terrestrial electricity consumption and achieved a double leap in economic efficiency and energy efficiency. According to estimates, assuming the launch of a 40 MW data center, an equivalent energy cost of approximately $0.002 per kilowatt-hour can be achieved. 3) Application scenario driven: security and national tasks provide underlying traction, while commercial cloud services are developed after the cost and technology are mature. 4) Reusable rocket+new material drive: SpaceX “Falcon 9” reduced the unit launch cost to less than $3,000 by recycling first-class rockets and fairings. Many domestic commercial space companies have carried out high-altitude recycling experiments for recyclable rockets; as a high-performance engineering thermoplastic, PEEK has a specific weight of <1.4. Compared with aluminum alloy, the weight reduction is more than 40% and steel by nearly 85%, which can significantly improve rocket payload and transportation economy.

Core technological innovation, focusing on key aspects of space computing power

1) Energy supply: The solar radiation intensity in space is about 30% higher than the ground, and photovoltaics is the optimal form of energy supply. The core composition of a solar wing includes three key components: a cell, a substrate, and an unfolding structure. The battery path suggests focusing on the three types of solutions: crystalline silicon, gallium arsenide, and perovskite. GaAs has short-term cost rigidity and is suitable for high-value satellites; crystalline silicon technology has the highest degree of industrialization maturity, can be used in terrestrial supply chains and processes, and has the advantage of large-scale cost; perovskite has broad scope for future alternatives due to its high cost performance, flexibility, and easy integration. The flexible film substrate surrounds the PI/CPI film, which can improve the reliability of folding and unfolding of the solar wing and support the satellite's high-power power supply requirements; 2) Cooling scheme: In space, since there is no thermal convection of air, thermal convection basically fails in the orbital environment, and space computing power cooling mainly depends on thermal radiation and heat conduction. High-power computing power satellites use a hybrid scheme of “liquid cooling+large cooling wing plate”. The cooling plate extends from the traditional small area to a large area. 3) Radiation resistance: The key to anti-radiation chips is scene adaptation. Domestic design, reinforcement and process optimization are progressing rapidly. It is expected to go hand in hand with the US. High-radiation resistant materials such as GaN/SiC will accelerate penetration and become the core adaptation solution for high-power space-borne chips. The rise of COTS derivative solutions will also drive chip generation from customization to standardization and modularization.

Risk warning: technological breakthroughs fall short of expectations; drop in launch costs slow; uncertainty about international rules