According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the overall economic and trade relationship between China and the US is expected to stabilize in the short term, which favors export expectations in 2026, but long-term structural conflicts still exist and need to be resolved by developing alternative markets and improving independent technology. We think the US federal funds rate is expected to fall to around 3.25% by the end of 2026. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle will narrow the gap between China and the US. If the decline in US interest rates is faster than in China, it will continue to support the stabilization and strength of the RMB. At the same time, as export companies' willingness to settle remittances increases, the increase in the supply of US dollars in the market is also conducive to the appreciation of the RMB. On the other hand, China's own current account still maintains a surplus, and the size of the trade surplus in 2025 is impressive, which provides fundamental support for the appreciation of the RMB.

According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the overall economic and trade relationship between China and the US is expected to stabilize in the short term, which favors export expectations in 2026, but long-term structural conflicts still exist and need to be resolved by developing alternative markets and improving independent technology. We think the US federal funds rate is expected to fall to around 3.25% by the end of 2026. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle will narrow the gap between China and the US. If the decline in US interest rates is faster than in China, it will continue to support the stabilization and strength of the RMB. At the same time, as export companies' willingness to settle remittances increases, the increase in the supply of US dollars in the market is also conducive to the appreciation of the RMB. On the other hand, China's own current account still maintains a surplus, and the size of the trade surplus in 2025 is impressive, which provides fundamental support for the appreciation of the RMB.