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Hogs Drift in a Quiet Session
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February Lean Hogs opened higher, traded to the session high at 85.225 and then broke down to the low of the day at 84.25. It consolidated the rest of the session and settled near the low at 84.475. It was a quiet session, in holiday mode, trading between resistance at 85.325 and support at the rising 13-DMA now at 84.375. Monday’s price action put Hogs in neutral mode after peaking on December 23rd at 86.225 and breaking down to Friday’s low at 83.825. The market is trying to navigate between a bearish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and the Cold Storage report showing very tight pork supply. Futures are also in an uptrend that stalled at resistance at the declining 100-DMA that was at 86.25 and has tested support at the rising 13-DMA for the second day in a row. This also contributed to the neutral market we saw on Monday. Production is slowing as the holiday weeks have less days to slaughter but demand also is faltering with cutout prices working lower since peaking on December 19th. Exports have weakened as we end the year, which could limit cutouts if it continues into the new year. Pressure could build and futures could wither as we start the new year. We’ll see!... If price can hold settlement, we could see a re-test of resistance at 85.325. Resistance then comes in at the 100-DMA on the continuous chart at 86.05. A failure from the rising 13-DMA could see price test support at 83.325. Support then comes in at 81.70.
The Pork Cutout Index ticked higher and is at 97.33 as of 12/26/2025.
The Lean Hog Index ticked higher and is at 83.84 as of 12/24/2025.
Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 444,000, which is below last week’s 496,000 and last year’s 485,060.
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Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
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