CBRE: The Hong Kong housing market has bottomed out and rebounded, and property prices are expected to rise by 3%-5% next year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guo Weiyan, executive director of CBRE Hong Kong Valuation and Consulting Services, said that as of November, property prices in Hong Kong had risen 2.8%, and rents had also risen 4.3% since the beginning of the year, in line with CBRE's predictions at the beginning of the year. He pointed out that after three years of continuous decline, the Hong Kong housing market has bottomed out and rebounded, indicating that buyers have regained confidence and fundamentals have generally strengthened. He expects the increase in property prices in 2026 to be higher than in 2025, and is expected to increase by about 3% to 5%. He also pointed out that rents have reached a record high and are expected to continue to rise in 2026, but the increase is lower than property prices, and the expected growth rate is about 2% to 3%.

CBRE expects a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in 2026, with a total volume of 65,000 to 70,000 transactions. First-hand sales are expected to exceed 20,000, and the optimistic estimate is that the average monthly sales volume will exceed 2,000. Meanwhile, second-hand sales are expected to exceed 45,000 units, with an average monthly sales volume of more than 3,500.

In terms of inventory, the bank expects inventory to decline from its peak in 2025, but the rate of decline will be slow. Since April 2025, the developer has maintained stable first-hand sales, with around 1,600 to 2,200 first-hand transactions per month. The bank also expects inventory to fall below 20,000 units by the end of 2026. Looking ahead, as inventory volumes drop by thousands of units, developers may reduce discount offers, which will support the continued rise in Hong Kong property prices.