Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking|The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices has ushered in opportunities for sodium-ion batteries (with concept stocks)

On December 26, lithium prices continued their upward trend and ushered in a landmark breakthrough. Guangji Institute's main contract for lithium carbonate stood strong at the 130,000 yuan/ton mark and hit a new high since November 2023 with an intraday price of 130,800 yuan/ton.

By the close of the day, its latest price was 135,500 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 68.72% during the year. The rise in lithium prices will have a positive impact on the profit recovery of lithium carbonate manufacturers. As the global NEV and energy storage industries continue to develop, market demand for lithium carbonate will continue to grow.

According to a research report released by J.P. Morgan Chase on December 17, analysts such as Lyndon Fagan raised the target price of lithium carbonate to 18,000 US dollars/ton for the fourth quarter of 2026, which is far higher than the current spot price of about 13,500 US dollars/ton. At the same time, the target price of spodumene, which is a raw material for lithium ore, has also been raised to 2,000 US dollars/ton, which is almost double the current spot price of about 1,100 US dollars/ton.

This dramatic shift had a direct impact on capital markets. J.P. Morgan Chase announced an overall increase in the rating of all lithium miner stocks covered by it to “increase” (Accumulation) and significantly raised the target prices of these companies. It believes that in the context of strong commodity prices, these stocks have significant upside.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that sodium-ion batteries have ushered in opportunities due to the sharp rise in lithium prices.

China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that in the past few years, the cost of sodium-ion batteries has dropped rapidly, their energy density has also increased significantly, and their application scenarios and scale have continued to expand. Looking at the terminal scenario, the vehicle began to be used in A0/A00 models based on low temperature performance and cost considerations, and expanded to hybrid models. In the motorcycle market, sodium batteries have safety and cost advantages over lithium batteries. In 2024, many companies will release sodium-electric motorcycles, which are expected to gradually replace some lead-acid batteries. In the field of energy storage, sodium electricity enters from household storage to large-scale storage applications. In various markets such as power and energy storage, sodium-ion batteries are expected to gradually be used on a large scale.

On December 28, the Ningde Era Supplier Conference was held in Ningde. In 2026, the Ningde era will use sodium batteries on a large scale in the fields of power exchange, passenger cars, commercial vehicles, energy storage, etc., which is expected to form a new trend of “sodium-lithium double stars shine”.

In a conference call with Pritt last week, the company said that the company's current orders for sodium batteries have increased tenfold over the same period last year and have reached 10 GWh.

Ningde's sodium electricity shipments are expected to increase by at least 5 times in '25.

According to 120,000 estimates, the cost of sodium batteries is already very similar to lithium batteries, but the cycle life of sodium-ion batteries is 1.5 times that of lithium-ion batteries, considering that the single storage cost may actually be lower.

Hong Kong stocks related to the sodium-ion battery industry chain:

Ningde Times (03750), Zhongwei New Materials (02579), BYD Co., Ltd. (01211)