The CITIC Securities Research Report predicts that oil dispersion will enter the fulfillment phase of the cycle in 2026. On the one hand, the aging of the fleet and the fragmentation of the black and white fleet will lead to insufficient market capacity. As of November 2025, sanctioned capacity will account for 15.7% of global VLCCs, leading to a gradual increase in sanctioned capacity. On the other hand, CITIC Securities estimates that by 2027, the share of VLCC capacity over the age of 20 will increase by 4 pcts to 23%, making it difficult to deliver new ships or meet the replacement needs of old ships. Strong supply-side constraints will become more apparent in 2026. In the context of structural growth in compliance market demand and low oil prices in 2026, demand for crude oil reserves may be the main marginal variable. The annualized VLCC tariff center is expected to fall between 60,000 US dollars/day and 75,000 US dollars/day. Under the upward cashing period of the cycle, the flexible release of VLCC tariffs is expected to drive rapid fleet profit growth next year. Looking at the short term, the off-season for seasonal transportation is approaching, so it is recommended to choose an opportunity to arrange the layout. Dry bulk transportation, on the other hand, is expected to benefit from the increase in downstream demand brought about by the US interest rate cut cycle and domestic “anti-domestic circulation” promotion. Combined with the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project and potential soybean trade between China and the US, there is a marginal increase. Demand for dry bulk goods is expected to rise. The Capesize dry bulk carrier is expected to be the main contributor to the increase in dry bulk freight prices, while the Panamax dry bulk carrier is expected to benefit from the potential soybean trade between China and the US.

The CITIC Securities Research Report predicts that oil dispersion will enter the fulfillment phase of the cycle in 2026. On the one hand, the aging of the fleet and the fragmentation of the black and white fleet will lead to insufficient market capacity. As of November 2025, sanctioned capacity will account for 15.7% of global VLCCs, leading to a gradual increase in sanctioned capacity. On the other hand, CITIC Securities estimates that by 2027, the share of VLCC capacity over the age of 20 will increase by 4 pcts to 23%, making it difficult to deliver new ships or meet the replacement needs of old ships. Strong supply-side constraints will become more apparent in 2026. In the context of structural growth in compliance market demand and low oil prices in 2026, demand for crude oil reserves may be the main marginal variable. The annualized VLCC tariff center is expected to fall between 60,000 US dollars/day and 75,000 US dollars/day. Under the upward cashing period of the cycle, the flexible release of VLCC tariffs is expected to drive rapid fleet profit growth next year. Looking at the short term, the off-season for seasonal transportation is approaching, so it is recommended to choose an opportunity to arrange the layout. Dry bulk transportation, on the other hand, is expected to benefit from the increase in downstream demand brought about by the US interest rate cut cycle and domestic “anti-domestic circulation” promotion. Combined with the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project and potential soybean trade between China and the US, there is a marginal increase. Demand for dry bulk goods is expected to rise. The Capesize dry bulk carrier is expected to be the main contributor to the increase in dry bulk freight prices, while the Panamax dry bulk carrier is expected to benefit from the potential soybean trade between China and the US.